David’s view
Q: Can Democrats actually replace Biden before the convention?
A: Yes, if they really want to.
Q: How?
A: First, Biden would need to withdraw, and release his 3,904 delegates, who were selected last month. The newly unbound delegates would pick the new nominee. When Democrats speculate about a “mini-primary” or “open convention,” what they mean is that these delegates, along with the 37 “uncommitted” delegates and the eight won by candidates who dropped out already, could vote for whoever they wanted to.
Q: What’s the deadline?
A: It varies a bit by state, but the DNC begins on Aug. 19, and the nominating roll call would normally happen on Aug. 20.
Q: Didn’t I hear about a virtual roll call before that?
A: You probably did. After Ohio’s Republican secretary of state warned that the DNC would blow past the state’s (unusually early) ballot deadline, the party scheduled a “virtual roll call,” a break-glass plan to nominate Biden before the convention – currently planned for July 21. Ohio legislators actually moved the state’s deadline last month, irritating Democrats by adding some campaign finance reforms they’d opposed. So the early vote is totally optional.
Q: Who are these delegates?
A: Party regulars who support Joe Biden, not the sort of people who usually show up to a convention in a rebel mood. There are also hundreds of automatic delegates; the term “superdelegates” got toxic in 2016 when Bernie Sanders made an issue out of them in his primary campaign. But they don’t vote unless no candidate has a majority on the first ballot.
Q: Could the Democrats run a different nominee than Harris?
A: They could, hence the ongoing parlor game about Popular Democrat TBD leading the party out of this quicksand. But only Harris, whose name is on the campaign’s organizing documents, would inherit the current Biden campaign and its resources. If the delegates rejected her, the Biden-Harris war chest could be donated to the DNC or a super PAC.
Q: Would Republicans sue if the Democrats changed out Biden?
A: Potentially, yes. Three days before the debate, the Heritage Foundation shared a memo about the potential for “pre-election litigation aimed at exasperating, with legitimate concerns for election integrity, the withdrawal process for a presidential candidate.” But Democrats saw that as a head-fake. The memo, for example, warns that Wisconsin “prohibits withdrawal except in the case of death.” But state law is clear: “Nominees chosen at a national convention” by each major party are on the ballot. This doesn’t get more complicated unless Biden is withdrawn as the nominee after the convention.
Q: What would happen then?
A: DNC rules state that “in the event of death, resignation or disability” of a nominee after the convention, the party chair (Jaime Harrison) would confer with Democratic leaders in Congress and the Democratic Governors Association. After that, the DNC would pick the nominee. In 2016, then-DNC chair Donna Brazile studied that back-up plan after Hillary Clinton collapsed from pneumonia at a 9/11 commemoration service. The candidate she saw as the most credible Clinton replacement was, of course, Joe Biden.
Q: What do Republicans want?
A: Since Trump walked off that stage in Atlanta, they’ve been rooting for injuries, but assuming and hoping that Biden remains the nominee. They’ve riffed about Michelle Obama, who’s never expressed any interest in a campaign, coming back to replace Biden. But they assume the choice is a weakened Biden or a wounded Harris. “Their convention isn’t until late August,” Trump strategist David Bossie told me at the debate. “That gives them, on one hand, a little time to try to do it. On the other hand, they’d have a very short window to introduce a new candidate to the American people.”
