Biden’s last line of defense: Mutually assured destruction

A presidential candidate rallying supporters to stop party “elites” from trying to oust him is a familiar scene — if you’ve followed Donald Trump’s career.

We weren’t the only ones to notice the parallels. “It very much reminded me of Trump,” said one Democratic strategist after Biden’s call-in to Morning Joe (once a favorite Trump venue, by the way). “Tactically, Biden’s phoner was stealing a page out of the Trump playbook,” a Republican strategist said.

Over the last decade, Trump repeatedly used threats against party leaders as leverage in case they ever tried to turn on him. He threatened to run with a third party in 2016 if he felt he wasn’t treated fairly, and reportedly made a similar threat during his impeachment trial after January 6. When he announced his latest run this cycle, prominent Republicans openly worried he would deliberately destroy the party’s nominee if it was anyone but him. And, of course, anyone who opposed him could expect a nasty primary challenge.

Biden’s threat is similar in effect, but functionally different. He doesn’t command a rabid army of supporters to weaponize against opponents like Trump (though Democrats are watching for signs of pro-Biden backlash), and he’s the definition of an institutionalist and insider, not an anti-establishment rebel who could leave his party behind if he wanted to.

What Biden can do is be stubborn in a way that sets up a scenario of mutually assured destruction for Democrats. So long as opponents of his nomination believe it’s impossible to force him to step aside, any escalation of their criticism risks damaging him even further in November. And the worse his standing gets, the more his party is likely to suffer up and down the ballot.

Democrats don’t sound entirely ready to believe him — for now. After all, the entire reason his critics think their more gentle appeals to him might work is that he’s the kind of politician who usually does care about the health of his party and his legacy within it. Many of the “elites” that he decried are the kinds of elected leaders, liberal commentators, and advocacy groups he’s cultivated relationships with across five decades. A number of Senate Democrats still sounded unwilling to concede that he’ll be the nominee as of Monday night.

But Biden’s big advantage here is that it really is almost impossible to force him to step aside; he already won the support of the overwhelming majority of convention delegates, who are required to support him. Some Democrats have politely alluded to Biden having a big decision to make, or suggested he talk with his family, in the hopes of giving him space to potentially leave on his own. But if that doesn’t work, the next move would be to organize members to demand he pass the torch — perhaps privately to start, but then loudly if he refuses.

It’s not a very appetizing prospect. If Biden really is willing to fight a Democratic civil war, it would mean heading into convention season with key chunks of the party on the record with doubts about their nominee and pro-Biden factions accusing them of sabotage, all while Republicans quietly sit back and munch popcorn. Biden has been working hard to line up support from Black Democrats and labor — Congressional Black Caucus Chair Steven Horsford backed Biden Monday — setting up a potentially uncomfortable race and class dynamic to the fight as well.

New York Rep. Ritchie Torres summed up the situation on Monday with an unusual statement asking Democrats not to badmouth Biden on the basis of Cold War-style game theory.

“Regardless of where one stands on the question of President Biden’s political future, the intra-party mixed messaging strikes me as deeply self-destructive,” he said. “Those publicly calling on President Biden to withdraw should ask themselves a simple question: what if the President becomes the Democratic nominee? The drip, drip, drip of public statements of no confidence only serve to weaken a President who has been weakened not only by the debate but also by the debate about the debate.”

While it’s never ideal for a party to be navigating a political hostage standoff involving their own nominee, it’s not necessarily fatal. Trump won the general election in 2016 after the “Access Hollywood” tape dropped, even though his hold on the party’s leaders and institutions was far weaker than it is now.