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The assassination attempt on Donald Trump paused the political conversation among Democrats just as they were simultaneously preparing to rebut his convention and debating whether to replace their nominee.
“Folks are not discussing that,” one Democratic leadership aide said. “At the moment, everyone is grateful that the former president is stable and safe.”
Several other lawmakers and staff in Washington echoed those comments: Democrats were taking their time to gather information before assessing the political fallout and their chief concern was about the security implications.
“Members are still mostly talking about what happened, who the shooter was, and keeping themselves safe,” one Democratic House member said.
The Biden campaign has similarly pulled its political ads and Congress is already planning to investigate how the US Secret Service failed to prevent a gunman from getting in position to fire from a rooftop. President Joe Biden postponed a stop in Texas scheduled for Monday during which he was supposed to mark the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Civil Rights Act.
It’s also spilling into down-ballot races. The Democratic and Republican Senate campaign arms paused their digital fundraising. A spokesperson for Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine’s reelection campaign told Semafor that his campaign stops were canceled for Sunday, and they were making decisions on future events “day by day.”
But with just weeks left to settle their own internal party questions, it’s unlikely to stay that way for long. And behind the scenes, speculation continued to brew about how the shooting might impact the general election and whether it would cut off — or accelerate — internal efforts to oust Biden.
“I think the President heard our message very clearly,” Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo., said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday in response to a question about a tense phone call he and other Democrats had with Biden over the weekend before the shooting. “And in fact, he promised to come back to us with more information to address our concerns and to answer our questions. And that’s the process we’re going through right now, in the coming days is answering those questions.”
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Not every Democrat we spoke to was convinced the reaction would play out predictably, or that the incident would have a durable effect on a polarized race against Trump, especially with so many months remaining.
“I found it so bizarre that many people on my side are firmly in the camp of he can’t win,” said one party strategist who does not work for the Biden campaign. “That has to be a vibes analysis, because I have not seen a rational basis for that. I think the vote choice consolidation for Biden is very much there if we get into October.”
But others were more pessimistic, fearing the image of a bloodied Trump rising with his fist pumped would energize Republicans and give him a new way to appeal to voters outside of the typical political conversation.
“That’s the whole fucking election,” one Democratic member supportive of Biden’s nomination told Semafor. “Every image from that is iconic and couldn’t have been created on a Hollywood movie.”
Even as they predicted a Biden loss, though, the same member bitterly suggested the move would slow momentum for a replacement: “All of the thirsty and self-absorbed, ambitious, and think they’re fancy pants Dems with their measured words on Biden would-be replacing will run away and keep powder dry for 2028.”
On the other end of the spectrum, some Democrats wondered if a Trump bump would further fuel concerns about Biden’s ability to navigate an even more difficult political environment, eventually building pressure again to drop out.
One senior Democratic Senate aide noted that the Biden campaign plan relied heavily on promising normalcy and denouncing Trump as a chaotic and dangerous figure, something that may now be harder to do as the nation grapples with the shooting.
“He was already on track to win and the fact that he is now a victim of political violence rather than the perpetrator undermines Biden’s core appeal,” the aide said.
The aide added the situation might boost interest in options beyond Kamala Harris as well, as it might give the party a way to more dramatically reset the race, unburdened by what has occurred in the Biden-Trump wars. “Democrats’ only hope is to nominate a fresh face who can turn the page on this entire era, call for lowering the temperature and position Democrats as the party of the future not the past,” the aide said.
But the baseline scenario might be Biden benefiting from a rally-around-the-flag effect as Democrats grow wary of confronting him during a national crisis. Losing several days of news cycles that would otherwise feature prominent debates over his standing could also help him by simple inertia. Some Democrats are antsy about extending their intramural debates beyond the Republican convention without some decisive resolution, regardless of where it ends up.
Democrats who spoke to Semafor insisted they did not see party leaders jumping off the assassination news to squash discussions around Biden; or Biden’s opponents rushing to reassert themselves in response to the situation. Things simply remained too new and too sensitive.
“I’m not hearing any of this at this moment,” Rep. Norma Torres of California said. “Folks are saying to stop with the political rhetoric.”