Senate Democrats share polling showing Biden dragging down candidates

Senate Democrats and campaigns have been circulating polling from a liberal outside group showing President Biden hurting their candidates in comparison to other potential nominees, a source familiar with the survey told Semafor.

The source added that Democrats who had reviewed the survey included people known to speak with the president.

Semafor obtained a memo describing the survey, which was conducted by Welcome PAC, a group that focuses on winning voters in red-leaning states and districts. The poll was conducted July 8 — before the recent attempt on Donald Trump’s life — and polled 3,044 voters in 11 states with relevant races.

In it, they asked voters whether they would support their state’s Senate candidate if Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer were on the top of the ticket after being presented with a short biography of each.

Their conclusion: While Senate candidates remained in strong shape overall in relation to Biden, with an average 55-45 lead over their opponents, their lead expanded modestly with Harris atop the ticket (56-44) and slightly more with Whitmer (57-43).

“This research suggests there may be merit to the concern about the down-ballot effect of an unpopular presidential nominee,” a memo attached to the polling said.

The survey also modeled “estimated gains” for candidates in one illustration, which appeared to be especially pronounced in Whitmer’s home state of Michigan, which projected a double-digit shift. Harris pushed the Senate candidate up by marginally more than Whitmer in Arizona, but no other state.

A source familiar with the polling methodology said the section, which was separate from the topline polling of individual candidates, was based on a “multi-level regression” that incorporated a variety of individual, state-level, and demographic factors.

You can take the findings with a grain of salt — it’s not impossible to use question wording, models, or other special sauce to gently nudge polling towards a desired outcome.

But the survey’s circulation points to the urgent interest in the Senate — where support for Biden has been especially lukewarm — in determining his strength as the leader of the Democratic ticket. Public polling has typically shown Senate candidates running ahead of Biden, sometimes by a wide margin, but has zeroed in less on the impact of other nominees on their position.

Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has kept his cards close to the vest while hearing out member concerns, telling reporters “I’m with Joe” or “I’m for Joe” when asked, but otherwise staying out of the debate over Biden’s status.

Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig reported on Wednesday that Schumer and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries were privately among the Democrats who pushed the DNC to scrap a plan to nominate Biden by “virtual vote” as soon as next week, which Biden’s critics saw as a brute force play to move past questions around his nomination. NBC News initially reported Schumer’s involvement.

• The Biden campaign and DNC argued that Democrats needed to confirm him early in order to address an issue in Ohio that threatened to keep him off the ballot. But spokesman for Ohio’s governor and Secretary of State told Semafor’s David Weigel that they had already fixed the issue with a new state law and had no plans to revisit Biden’s status.
• Biden’s problems may run deeper than with Congressional Democrats. A new AP-NORC poll found nearly two-thirds of Democrats want him to drop out of the race.