The News
Democrats woke up on Thursday morning in a post-Biden world, already looking ahead to what they saw as a likely exit that would pave the way for a new nominee.
“Thank him for his service and pivot to MAGA,” a senior House Democratic aide said.
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Kadia, Joseph and Benjy's view
As more and more conveniently timed leaks appeared indicating everyone from Nancy Pelosi to Chuck Schumer to Hakeem Jeffries had urged Biden to drop out, the writing appeared to be on the wall — even if Joe Biden has shown no public sign of reading it.
Some Democrats have fantasized that Biden would announce the decision right before or after Donald Trump’s nomination speech in order to steal the news cycle.
The question is already turning to what comes next. In conversations with Democratic elected officials, staffers, and strategists the early conventional wisdom was that Vice President Kamala Harris would eventually step into his role atop the ticket.
Whether that would be through a direct endorsement by Biden and key party leaders, or a brief pseudo-primary against other candidates, she’s still seen as the likeliest replacement even as some Democrats argue that an outsider — likely one of several governors — might give them a better chance to reset the race.
“It’s not clear anybody else could generate the name ID quickly enough to run a real campaign because no one’s ever heard of any of those people,” one top Democratic strategist told Semafor.
They added there were “huge, huge, huge” logistical and financial hurdles that would have to be overcome to stand up a campaign around someone who was not currently on the ticket.
Speaking at a virtual Politico event on Thursday, Washington Rep. Adam Smith said “I support Kamala Harris as the nominee,” but that she should also earn it against other candidates in an open convention. Whoever won, the bar for improvement sounded low.
“Number one, you know she is a more articulate campaigner. She will be able to deliver this message more effectively,” he said. “And number two, nobody is questioning her health.”
But all of the talk of next steps was still speculation — the environment was moving so fast that it seemed hard to keep up.
“This is uncharted waters,” John Lawrence, a former chief of staff to Nancy Pelosi said.
In the meantime, if there’s a final push to rescue Biden coming, there’s little sign of it now as reports emerge that the president’s campaign and inner circle are growing more resigned to his fate.
Room for Disagreement
Even the most senior Democrats are uncertain what will happen. Crucial decisions — both whether he will depart; and if so, on what conditions — rest with the president and there’s little visibility into his thinking right now.
And while the early conventional wisdom among Democrats is that Harris will be the nominee, the lesson of this month is that absolutely anything can happen. Politico reported that Democrats concerned about her candidacy have been circulating a polling memo by BlueLabs arguing that alternative candidates will have a better shot. A range of other names have circulated, including red and purple-state governors like Kentucky’s Andy Beshear and North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, as well as the governors of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and California.