How to read Trump on Taiwan

In a rare statement in response to Trump’s comments, Taiwan’s de facto embassy in the US said “preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is in the interest of the United States and the international community as it is an indispensable part to global prosperity,” and emphasized Taiwan is “actively strengthening deterrence capabilities with the support of the United States” as the military threat from China increases.

When I set out to write about Trump’s plans for China in a potential second term earlier this year, I asked people in his orbit about his plans for Taiwan. Across the board, former officials told me that he would push the Taiwanese to spend more than its current 2.5% GDP on defense, as he sees that as key to deterring a Chinese invasion of the island.

Elbridge Colby, a conservative foreign policy thinker whose name has been floated for potential high-level Trump 2.0 positions, has called Taiwan’s current level of defense spending “woefully inadequate” given China’s military buildup, and has suggested the island spend between 5% and 10% of its GDP on defense.

Trump’s comments, made to Bloomberg Businessweek in June, can be read as part of a broader effort to encourage more spending. Taiwan does not receive US weapons for free; rather, it has paid billions for US military equipment, purchases that have benefited the US economy.

Trump has consistently refused to say whether the US would defend Taiwan under his administration, something former officials interpret as a policy of so-called “strategic ambiguity” and his desire to appear unpredictable to foreign adversaries and allies.

That doesn’t mean the US wouldn’t come to Taiwan’s defense if it were under assault by China if Trump is in office, however.

When I asked Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally in Congress, earlier this year whether Trump would ever echo Biden in vowing to defend Taiwan, Graham said he didn’t need to: “I don’t think he needs to say much. He just needs to be Trump.”

Graham added Trump views a Chinese invasion as the trigger for an “unraveling of the world,” and that he’s worried about the huge economic impact it would have, particularly on the global semiconductor chips supply. Indeed, Trump brought up semiconductors during the Bloomberg interview, accusing Taiwan of taking “almost 100% of our chip industry.”

Lisa Curtis, who served on the National Security Council under the Trump administration, told me she interpreted Trump’s comments as a signal he will “seek greater concessions from Taiwan regarding its high-end chip technology in exchange for US security support.” That could mean pushing Taiwanese chipmakers to invest more in the US (TSMC is already building three high-tech chip factories in Arizona with the help of billions in US grants).

“Given that Trump often approaches foreign relations as a business venture and wants to show the American people he can drive hard bargains,” Curtis said. “This is very typical Trump behavior and statements and I don’t think anybody should be alarmed, and I don’t think they should interpret this as meaning that Trump would be reluctant to come to Taiwan’s defense for example if it were attacked by China.”

Shin Kawashima, a professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo, told Semafor in an email that the comments could lead the Japanese government and other Asian allies to believe Trump “would not show such strong interest in the Taiwan issue” and would “seek to have allies bear more of the burden” for its security.

• Trump’s comments signaled weakness to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Michael Schuman writes in The Atlantic.
• JD Vance, Trump’s VP pick, has said preventing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan should be a top priority of the US.