Dropping out may be the best thing Biden ever did on climate

Dropping out of the presidential race may be the best thing Biden ever did for the climate.

Over the last several months, his campaign had struggled to win over some environmental groups, especially those on the far left, a remarkable failure given that his opponent is stridently dedicated to scrapping climate-related subsidies and regulations. Biden was seen by some as too soft on Big Oil, especially after green-lighting a major drilling project in Alaska. He fumbled chances to make a clear case to undecided voters about the economic benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act that he got passed, especially in the disastrous debate last month that torpedoed his reelection bid. And there’s a lot of overlap among young people between those passionate about climate action and those frustrated by the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza.

Harris appears to solve these problems, even if her more strident past comments about fossil fuels could turn some voters off. While some of her biggest potential donors from Wall Street and Silicon Valley have said they are holding off on writing checks until she has officially secured the Democratic nomination, to avoid the appearance of a “coronation,” climate supporters see no need to wait. Harris presents a clear sense of continuity from the best parts of Biden’s climate agenda, they say, and would likely push for steps to strengthen it. And if she’s able to beat Trump, she may prove a better steward of Biden’s climate legacy than Biden himself.

“Harris’s nomination gave the efforts to defeat Trump a much-needed morale boost,” said Aru Shiney Ajay, executive director of the Sunrise Movement, a youth-led climate group that had called for Biden to drop out. “We’ve seen this most among young people who are newly ready to knock doors and make calls, but also in an uptick of new individual donors who are ready to open their wallets for a campaign that can win.”

As the clean energy industry has grown over the last decade, it has emerged as a prominent political force. Today there are numerous fundraising committees led by trade groups from the wind, solar, biofuels, and utilities industries. These have tended to favor Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. During Biden’s first contest against Trump, this apparatus delivered a record $9.5 million to Democrats, plus another $3 million to liberal-leaning outside groups, according to campaign finance tracking group OpenSecrets.

But since then, the industry’s financial enthusiasm for Democrats has waned, and Republicans have closed the gap. Direct support for Trump himself is still rare in the industry, but there are a growing number of enterprise-minded Republican congressional candidates that are drawing clean-energy support. Two of the top five donor groups so far this year have given more to Republicans than to Democrats. If Harris wins the White House but loses Congress, more ambitious parts of her climate agenda would be hamstrung, even if more Republican members are ostensibly pro-clean energy. Putting Harris up top could jolt donors at all levels, said Jon Powers, a former Obama administration climate official who is now president and co-founder of the renewable energy developer CleanCapital and a prominent Democratic fundraiser who sits on the board of the Environmental Defense Fund’s political arm.

“Harris absolutely was an injection of momentum and got people out of a bit of a malaise,” he said. “As a donor, I was very supportive of President Biden, but after the debate a lot of anxiety was introduced. Now, the dollars are moving.”

Harris still faces steep competition, fundraising-wise, from Trump’s powerful donors in the oil and gas industry, some of whom have dedicated millions of dollars to his reelection. Big Oil’s campaign contributions dwarf those from Big Renewables; oil and gas companies and trade groups have donated at least $36 million to Republican candidates in this election cycle.