The News
Welcome to the Global Hot List, our subjective, dynamic ranking of the races and political developments you should be paying attention to right now, compiled by world elections expert Brad Glasser.
In today’s edition: America continues to digest a sudden change in candidates, the world watches Venezuela amid accusations of vote rigging, and a Czech party takes a right turn.
The List
1. USA - Enthusiasm gap
A new poll shows that Kamala Harris has charged ahead on voter enthusiasm, with 88% of Democrats excited to cast their ballot for her compared to 82% of Republicans for Trump. The poll, from Ipsos, likewise showed Harris’s favorability rating surging above water for the first time in years. While months remain in the campaign, the US political environment is seeing a clear shift, potentially dispelling the impact of the assassination attempt on Trump that took place just before his nominating convention and also sent his favorability numbers surging in some polls.
2. Venezuela - Election mess
Venezuela’s opposition denounced the country’s election result as a sham, as major players in the region look for clarification on the results. Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico — countries that have criticized sanctions on Venezuela — are to publish a “joint statement” seeking detailed results from Maduro’s government. The announcement of Maduro’s victory has been met with unrest, with protestors toppling symbols of “Chavismo” in some parts of the country.
3. France - On hold
Jockeying for power is currently on hold after France’s shock legislative election. While the Olympics has pressed pause on the process of parliamentary dealmaking for now, the dynamics remain the same: the left, despite an impressive first-place performance, may face an uphill battle to secure power, while Macron’s movement will attempt to cobble together enough votes to remain in charge. The outcome could well be more political chaos, though so far the Olympics have remained mostly untouched by the unfolding drama.
4. Tunisia - Saied re-run
Tunisia’s dictator is running for a second term in office. Don’t expect a fair election: Kais Saied’s government has sharply and consistently moved to undermine democracy in Tunisia, with outlets declaring the situation a reversal of its Arab Spring-era gains. Saied has tacked towards racist conspiracy theories and promoted ultra-right politics while in office, in conjunction with an authoritarian agenda that has seen numerous political opponents imprisoned.
5. Bangladesh – Mass movement
Mass protests in Bangladesh have coalesced into a “movement against a dictator,” according to an article in The Guardian. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has undertaken a crackdown on protests against job quotas for descendants of war veterans, which students claim is a “thinly veiled political manoeuvre” to shore up political support. Hasina’s government has not hesitated to use lethal force against protesters, with widespread abuses detailed by Amnesty International. The demonstrations potentially show Hasina’s “weakened position,” and have been described as “the greatest challenge to her rule since she took power in 2009.”
6. UK – Tory leadership
Yet another Tory leadership election in the UK will determine who is tasked with saving the party from terminal decline. Kemi Badenoch appears to be favored to succeed Sunak as leader, though her hard-right politics would ratify the party’s plunge into nationalism. Aside from Badenoch, several other contenders like former Home Secretary Priti Patel or former Minister for Immigration Robert Jenrick want to extend the Tories’ right-wing shift, while long-shot Tom Tugendhat is considered more of a moderate.
7. Iran – More moderate
Iran is a firm theocracy, but the recent vote for a reformist may signal a “more moderate” outlook for the country. The election of Masoud Pezeshkian has settled into a stable arrangement, as Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei gave his approval to the new president taking office. Despite the “reformist” moniker, Pezeshkian is unlikely to fundamentally change much within Iran, where the Supreme Leader holds supreme influence. While Pezeshkian may move for some level of detente with the US, he is still likely to “govern in seamless coordination” with Khamenei, according to analysis from Foreign Affairs.
8. Czechia - National reorganization
Czech politics could potentially be rewritten by the reorganization of parties within the European Parliament. Czechia’s first-place party ANO, led by billionaire Andrej Babis, has aligned itself with Viktor Orban in the EU, joining his Patriots for Europe group after leaving Macron’s Renaissance alliance. Moreover, the nationalist SPD party is joining forces with the new Europe of Sovereign Nations outfit, led by Germany’s AfD. The ESN is an extreme-right faction, which has allowed outright fascist sympathizers within its ranks. Given ANO and the SPD’s past affinity for working together, Czechia could be barreling towards a very right-wing politics in the future.
9. Namibia – No heaven
A member of Namibia’s ruling SWAPO declared that voters “will not see heaven” if they don’t support the party. Member of parliament Hamunyera Hambyuka made the remarks at a rally, and added that even the Devil would reject those who didn’t back Swapo. “Satan will tell you that you voted wrong,” Hambyuka said. “What you did was wrong and you have to go back because I also don’t want you. If Satan doesn’t want you, where will you go?” Hambyuka was criticized for the remarks, with one party leader accusing him of “playing Jesus.”