The News
If Donald Trump is reelected as president in November, it could undermine both US-style democracy and global stability, political commentators warn.
Journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Barton Gellman, who is also a senior advisor at the non-partisan Brennan Center for Justice, wrote in The Washington Post that tabletop role-playing exercises involving former officials revealed the US’ “checks and balances” system of government did little to constrain a committed authoritarian in control of the executive branch from making sweeping changes to the country and its laws.
Meanwhile, world leaders are preparing for a second Trump administration, as faith in the strength of US democracy has been “eroded” around the world, the Financial Times’ chief economics commentator said.
SIGNALS
Project 2025 amplified fears for US democracy
Project 2025, a 900-page document that outlines a vision for an ultra-conservative administration, has sparked fears Trump is planning an “autocratic takeover,” the Brookings Institute think tank wrote. The paper has drawn so much criticism for its extreme approach to policing American life that Trump is disavowing it, and its director has quit under pressure from the campaign. While the conservative editorial board of The Wall Street Journal said Democrats had inflated the threat of Project 2025 to “panic monger,” many analysts remain worried about a new Trump administration’s effect on democracy beyond the US. “The world is suffering from a democratic recession,” a Politico columnist wrote, one that a second Trump term could entrench.
EU plans ‘carrot-and-stick’ approach
Most European leaders are worried about the possibility of a second Trump administration, believing his “transactional, isolationist and disruptive style of governance would not only challenge but destroy the current transatlantic relationship,” analysts wrote in a German Institute for International and Security Affairs paper. The European Union plans a “carrot-and-stick” approach with Trump, the Financial Times reported: If he is reelected, they will quickly offer a trade deal, but also be prepared to hit back if he goes ahead with his planned tariffs on all imports to the US. Cohesion among EU states will be key, The Guardian’s diplomatic editor noted — divisions could make it easier for Trump to strike deals with individual states.
For China, whoever wins the election won’t make much of a difference
The change of administration in the US in 2025 is unlikely to have much impact on ties between Beijing and Washington, NPR reported. While Trump has pledged high tariffs of 60% on all imported Chinese goods, Harris is also expected to be hawkish toward Beijing, following Biden’s footsteps, and any hope that the relationship could improve “has given way to resignation.” “They’ve been trying to outshine each other to be tough on China,” one analyst said. China’s main goal for the next four years is to be prepared for anything, including armed confrontation, but to also try and avoid escalation and boost cooperation, rather than attempting to “fix the unfixable,” the South China Morning Post added.