The Scoop
New polling shared exclusively with Semafor shows Democrats’ attacks on JD Vance’s views on abortion, divorce and “childless cat ladies” are sticking with voters.
A pair of surveys by Blueprint, the centrist Democratic pollster backed by Reid Hoffman, one taken July 21 - July 22, two days after Vance was announced as Donald Trump’s running mate, and then again two weeks later on August 4, showed Vance’s net favorability falling from -7 to -11 with fewer voters unsure either way. That’s similar to other public polling, which has also shown Vance making a poor first impression since joining the Republican ticket.
The main shift in how respondents viewed Vance: He’s become more and more identified with his particular brand of conservatism and less with his famed biography as an author, veteran, and politician. Presented with a list of options to describe Vance in August, the most common answers were “conservative,” “anti-woman,” and “weird,” while more positive options like “young,” “smart,” and “businessman” declined from July. The percentage calling him “extreme” shot up 13 points.
“It’s not just the favorables; it’s what people think of it. It’s how he’s been introduced to the country,” Evan Roth Smith, lead pollster for Blueprint told Semafor. “Everything has gone exactly as bad as Democrats had hoped and Republicans have feared and everyone suspects.”
Blueprint also looked to dig deeper into the question by testing awareness of, and reactions to, a variety of statements by Vance, as well as messaging strategies around them.
Of the statements offered, participants were most aware of the “childless cat lady” comments with 50% of those surveyed saying they had heard of the remarks and 55% saying they were bothered by them. Scoring worse, but less well-known: A 2021 interview with Spectrum News in which he defended a Texas abortion law’s lack of exceptions for rape and incest by suggesting pregnancies from such circumstances are “inconvenient.” Sixty-two percent of voters said they were “bothered” Vance used the word “inconvenient” to describe pregnancies that stem from rape and incest with 50% reporting “it bothers me a lot.”
Significantly less bothersome to voters: A variety of statements criticizing Trump before Vance’s turn into Republican politics, suggesting they might perhaps be less effective as a wedge with conservatives or as part of a “flip flop” message with swing voters.
Blueprint tested potential attacks against Vance in July and August and found the highest scoring options with independent voters tended to hit similar themes as recent Democratic attacks. Messaging accusing Vance of criticizing parents who leave abusive marriages (Vance has disputed the context of the remarks), and of defending no-exceptions abortion bans on the basis that “two wrongs don’t make a right” were the most effective in August. An attack tying Vance to Project 2025 and quoting him saying “there are some good ideas in there” (the fuller Vance quote distances the Trump campaign from it) also scored highly.
“Everyone knows this has been a bad launch, but this is, I think, so far, the clearest data validation,” Roth Smith said.
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Kadia’s view
The polling underscores Vance’s shaky rollout and highlights that the presidential election has, at least for the last couple of weeks, often been focused on the two vice presidential candidates.
While Vance has not exactly endeared himself to voters to start, he has more recently emerged in a prominent role as an attack dog for the Trump campaign. He’s given a number of high-profile interviews over the last week (including one with Semafor’s Shelby Talcott) while delivering a steady stream of negative messaging against the Democratic ticket.
Whether Vance can win over voters’ hearts is an open question, but the Trump campaign hopes he can at least prevent his Democratic counterpart from doing so. Vance’s attacks on Minnesota Governor Tim Walz’s military record generated significant coverage and helped pressure the Harris campaign to clarify that Walz “misspoke” in a 2018 clip they shared in which he described weapons he “carried in war,” despite not serving in a combat zone.
The View From The Trump Campaign
“The only thing this poll shows is that leftwing hacks paid by Big Tech super-donors will say anything if the price is right,” William Martin, a spokesman for Vance, said in a statement. “Veterans all over America are disgusted with Tim Walz’s Stolen Valor and lies about his military record. Copy Cat Kamala’s VP selection is going to down in flames while she shamelessly hides from media scrutiny and plagiarizes President Trump’s policy platform. The American people see right through their desperate attempts to reinvent themselves, and will make their voices heard this November when they cast their ballots for President Trump and Senator Vance.”
Notable
- Blueprint’s message testing on Vice President Kamala Harris found Republican attacks on her immigration record tended to be most effective, while attacks seen as touching on her race, gender, and relationship history tested worst.