The News
Kamala Harris leads or ties Donald Trump in all but one battleground state — Nevada — according to the latest installment of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter’s Swing State Project survey, a major improvement over President Joe Biden’s performance.
Currently, an equal percentage of voters view Harris favorably and unfavorably, according to the survey. But her favorability rating has risen 13 points since May, and increased substantially among Democrats (by 20 points) and Black women (by 30 points) according to the survey, which was shared first with Semafor.
“Harris’ success in closing the gap is driven by her consolidation of the Democratic base, and increased support among independent voters,” Walter wrote in her analysis.
SIGNALS
Harris may have ‘re-expanded’ the Democrats’ electoral map
Harris has “re-expanded the map” for Democrats in November’s election, The New York Times’ Ezra Klein said in an interview with pollster Nate Silver, who has forecasted that even the typically red states of North Carolina and Georgia may now be in play. Trump’s eventual victory had seemed like a done deal after he survived an assassination attempt in July, but he “got a little arrogant,” and may soon have “no chips left,” Silver said. The challenge for Harris going forward will be balancing appealing to younger voters and voters of color, while holding onto support from white voters and seniors, Politico’s chief polling analyst argued.
Harris ‘can’t ride the meme wave all the way to the White House’
Harris’ social media team has effectively signaled that “everyone is welcome to participate in what is somewhere between a campaign and a movement,” pollster John Della Volpe told Semafor. But there’s no guarantee the enthusiasm will last, and Harris needs to convert vibes into votes: “She can’t ride the meme wave all the way to the White House… Trends move fast and mistakes can annoy or alienate people who love her ‘Feminomenon’ and ‘Brat’ content today,” the top analyst at research firm eMarketer added. The memes may nevertheless “create a permission structure” to vote for her for people who are otherwise cynical or disengaged with politics, something that can perhaps be measured by higher turnout at Harris rallies, The Nation argued.
Marta Biino contributed to this report.
Door may be closing for third-party candidates
Harris’ surge has also cratered support for third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is now polling in the mid-single digits down from a peak of 22%, Semafor’s David Weigel noted. With Harris on the ticket, third-party candidates can no longer bank on “voter dread” over Biden and Trump to help them break through, he added. Kennedy in particular faces an uphill battle, The Wall Street Journal reported, owing to controversies including sexual assault allegations and the dead bear cub episode, combined with legal challenges over whether he can appear on the ballot in some states. But Kennedy could still have an impact in key midwestern swing states, where “every single vote is going to count,” a politics expert told The Guardian.