Are the attacks on Tim Walz working? A Democratic pollster digs in.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has had his stumbles since joining the Democratic ticket, but he remains popular, according to new research from centrist Democratic pollster Blueprint that was shared exclusively with Semafor. And the group thinks they have a plan to keep him that way.

A survey by Blueprint, which is backed by Linkedin co-founder Reid Hoffman, found 44% of voters have a favorable opinion of Walz, versus 34% who have a negative one. The poll of 1,025 registered voters, taken Aug. 15-16, was in line with other public polling, which has typically found Walz more popular than Republican counterpart JD Vance.

Digging deeper, Walz was perceived as liberal by 56% of voters, less than the 65% who perceived Vance as conservative in their prior polling. Some of his achievements that have been hailed by Democrats tested well among independents as well: Providing school lunches to children was overwhelmingly popular, with only 8% of respondents overall saying they viewed him less favorably when told about it. 53% of voters said they viewed him more favorably in response.

But Walz has also faced a non-stop barrage of attacks from Republicans in the same period, led by Vance, that have drawn significant coverage. The Harris campaign had to acknowledge he misspoke years earlier about carrying weapons “in war,” which was part of a broader suite of attacks aimed at his military record, and he’s faced additional scrutiny over his 2006 campaign’s handling of an old DUI arrest. Republicans have also attacked his record as governor, especially his support for LGBTQ protections and handling of the 2020 riots in Minneapolis after George Floyd’s murder.

In short, Walz is getting good and bad press simultaneously: The survey found most voters have heard about his 20 years of a teacher, heard about (and admire) his 24 years in the Army National Guard, but also had heard that he retired before his unit deployed to Iraq, a prominent attack from Vance.

Blueprint tested several rebuttals to some of the most common criticisms of Walz and found the most effective response in each case was to quickly pivot to attacking Republicans for trying to distract from other campaign issues.

For the retirement attack, for example, they recommended pointing out Walz retired months before his unit received their official deployment order and accusing the GOP of trying to avoid discussing plans to reduce taxes for the rich and cut entitlement spending. For attacks on his handling of the riots, they recommended defining him as “tough on crime” before turning to his plans to be tough on “powerful corporations and elites.” Notably, the polling memo said Walz’s own recent rebuttal to attacks on his service — emphasizing he was proud of his service — was less effective than others they tested.

“Having survived his national introduction, Walz has an appealing record that voters still know little about, but are primed to appreciate,” Blueprint pollster Evan Roth Smith told Semafor. “And so long as he continues to deflect Republican attacks by dismissing them and returning to tried and true Democratic talking points, rather than digging in on defensiveness, he’ll prove to be a boost to the ticket, rather than a drag.”