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The News
Burkina Faso’s military government is imposing increasingly authoritarian measures amid fears that its control of the country is under threat after a series of jihadist attacks.
The insurgent attacks in March, June, and August have exposed the vulnerability of the administration led by Ibrahim Traoré, a 36-year-old officer who seized power in a coup around two years ago. In the last year, the ruling junta has also said it has “thwarted” at least two attempted coups.
Scores of security officers have been arrested in recent months, often by unidentified armed men, according to the friends and relatives of those taken, and local non-governmental organizations. The arrests are only confirmed when people have reappeared months later in military courts on sedition or terrorism charges.
Civilians who have displeased the regime, including judges and journalists, have been forcibly drafted into front-line combat. Those drafted include the popular radio journalist Alain Traoré, known to his audience as Alain Alain, who was reported “killed in action” on Aug. 17.
The administration’s attempt to assert its authority has also affected its approach to diplomacy. Relations both with France and the neighboring nation of Côte d’Ivoire, both of which have been accused of fomenting subversion, have been strained almost to breaking point. French diplomats were expelled in April after being accused of taking part in “subversive activities.” And, in the same month, Traoré said Abidjan had welcomed “all the destabilizers” of his country.
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Traoré’s grip on power is threatened by increasingly deadly attacks by Islamist militants.
The West African country is reeling from an attack in the eastern town of Tawori on Aug. 9 by jihadist insurgents. The regional governor, Ram Joseph Kafando, denounced the assault against more than 1,000 “civilians” as “barbarous.” The elite Rapid Intervention Battalions (BIR) reportedly suffered heavy casualties. Images purporting to show military equipment seized in the attack were shared by social media accounts linked to al-Qaida affiliate Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), which last March launched an attack on soldiers and members of a local voluntary force stationed near Tawori.
JNIM killed around 100 soldiers in an attack in June, it claimed in a statement. The group, which seeks to establish an Islamic state in West Africa and expel Western influences, has operated in the region since 2017.
On Aug. 6, just days before the latest attack, Traoré laid out his efforts to counter what he considers to be attempts by foreign and domestic actors to undermine his government. He welcomed the arrest of a dozen military personnel that he deemed “demonstrably complicit” with terrorists. “We are monitoring the situation,” he said.
Traoré said his administration had been “tracking a cell in a neighboring country, run by Western intelligence services primarily directed against our country.”
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Joël’s view
Aside from moving ever-closer to the Russia-allied juntas in Mali and Niger, it is hard to find a neighboring nation that is safe from Traoré’s misgivings. It points to a level of concern that borders on paranoia.
The spate of insurgent attacks is inextricably linked to the coup attempts. Discontent will only grow within the military if soldiers continue to be killed. Soldiers will seek to overthrow the junta if there is a sense that they’re being led to their deaths, and the government’s popularity is falling due to curtailed civil liberties and a failure to protect civilians from insurgents.
Traoré’s administration has been proactive. His government has invited Russian mercenaries to support Burkinabè troops in an attempt to fight insurgents. In January, a contingent of at least 100 troops from Africa Corps — a new version of the Russian mercenary group Wagner — arrived in Ouagadougou to “ensure the safety of the country’s leader Ibrahima Traoré and the Burkinabè people.”
Will it be enough? “Another coup in Burkina is ineluctable”, a West-African elder statesman told me. True or not, Traoré seems ready for one anyway.
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Room for Disagreement
Traoré can point to signs of support domestically and internationally. In May, a national conference organized by the government extended the period for the transition to domestic government by five more years.
Burkina Faso formed the Alliance of Sahel States with Niger and Mali, part of a security pact between the three countries. All three left the West African regional bloc Ecowas earlier this year.
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The View From Mali
The military ousted Mali’s then-president in 2020, vowing to crack down on Islamist insurgents. But, four years later, the security situation in the country has continued to deteriorate.
Mali’s current military leaders, who took power in a second coup in 2021, are presiding over a country in which economic hardship is increasingly widespread. The World Bank has said economic growth in the country is expected to slow to 3.1% this year, from 3.5% in 2023. Meanwhile, extreme poverty levels are rising: About 90% of Mali’s population lives in poverty.
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Notable
- “The short- and medium-term prospect for democratization of the Sahel seems exceedingly dim,” wrote Charles A. Ray, Africa program chair of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, in a report by the US think tank.