The News
Donald Trump still holds a significant lead over his opponents following the first Republican primary debate and his Georgia arrest, according to an internal poll of likely Republican voters obtained by Semafor.
The poll, conducted by the polling firm co/efficient and commissioned by Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, found Trump with 58% support, three points up from an August 7 poll. The Florida governor had 13% support while Nikki Haley was in third with 7%. Vivek Ramaswamy, seen lately as the up-and-comer in independent polls, sat in fourth place with 4% support. Trump also held a 39-point lead over Ron DeSantis on a head-to-head ballot with only their names listed. The poll sampled 2,762 likely Republican primary voters.
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Polls conducted at the behest of presidential campaigns are typically taken with a grain of salt compared to polls conducted independently, though it’s hardly alone in finding Trump with a massive lead. A poll by Emerson College this week also found Trump with a 38-point lead over DeSantis, albeit with some slippage in his position since the debate. The internal poll also found that 74% of those polled “believe the investigations and indictment” into the former president “are politically motivated,” compared to just 15% who feel Trump committed a crime. This data also squares with public findings.
The Trump poll comes shortly after a post-debate Iowa poll from Public Opinion Strategies, which works for DeSantis’ camp, found the Florida governor up 7 points to 21% support in Iowa after the first debate, compared to Trump’s 41%.
Co/efficient CEO Ryan Munce told Semafor that support for the former president has remained fairly stable at the state and national level, with his favorable ratings increasing throughout the campaign.
Step Back
Trump continues to solidify his hold on the nomination, but there’s little sign he’s catching on with the broader public. An ABC News/Ipsos poll earlier this month found just 31% of voters held a favorable opinion of Trump, versus 55% who held an unfavorable one. The good news for Trump: President Biden also held a 31% unfavorable rating. A number of recent general election polls show them effectively tied.