The News
National Democrats are boasting about a newly expanded map with Vice President Kamala Harris as their nominee and brighter prospects for their downballot candidates. The optimism does not, so far, include Florida — despite the state party’s best efforts to convince them.
“We’re showing every proof point that they [Harris campaign] need,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried told Semafor. “They’re seeing the polling closing. They’re seeing the volunteers surging. They’re seeing people coming out of the woodworks going to events. So they’re seeing what they need to be seeing.”
Multiple polls this month have shown Harris within striking distance of Trump, including one from Florida Atlantic University that put her within 2 among likely voters. Fried told reporters at the DNC that there’s “been a tremendous momentum shift” in the state, describing its residents as “lab rats for Project 2025” and highlighting the state’s six-week abortion restriction as something that is turning people away from the Republican Party. Voters will get a chance to overturn it via a ballot initiative in November, which Trump has pointedly not taken a position on.
Part of the Democratic excitement comes from the down-ballot races in Florida. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is currently running a tight race against Republican Sen. Rick Scott, with new polling suggesting the two are neck-and-neck. Another USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN survey found his approval rating at 35% — typically an extreme danger zone for an incumbent.
An enthusiastic Mucarsel-Powell told Semafor during a brief phone interview that Florida remains a swing state. She described an “energy” shift on the ground, both in her race and the presidential election, and urged Democrats to “come to Florida” if they are trying to make inroads with Latinos or emphasizing things like environmental protection and the economy.
“There are a lot of points in our state that indicate a very competitive race for Kamala Harris, and absolutely a win for me,” she said, mentioning the multiple school board candidates backed by Gov. Ron DeSantis who lost earlier this month. “It’s a state that always comes out for the right candidate when they communicate with them directly.”
But the optimism coming from some inside the state isn’t necessarily translating into the Harris campaign. This week they bought ad time in the state — but only in the Mar-a-Lago area, which was less an indicator that the campaign really believes the state is worth investing in, and more an example of the campaign trolling Trump — an opportunity, as The Bulwark’s Marc Caputo put it, to target the “precious real estate between Trump’s ears.”
“We thought it was important for Donald to see how much voters hate his Project 2025 plans to control their lives, seek revenge on his enemies, and rule as a dictator on day one,” Sarafina Chitika, a Harris spokeswoman, told The Bulwark. “Trump might forget, but we’ll make sure voters don’t—and they’ll hold him accountable this November.”
In a perhaps related development, the campaign is kicking off a 50-stop bus tour around reproductive rights in Palm Beach as well.
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Shelby’s view
The local enthusiasm about Democrats’ chances in Florida reminds me of the excitement around the idea that Republicans could win Virginia: I’m skeptical. Every presidential cycle has a series of “what-ifs” from both parties — but until we start seeing serious investments from a campaign into a state, it’s hard to argue that it’s truly in play.
Democrats have reason to hesitate, too. It’s an expensive state to play in and they’ve been burned repeatedly by recent campaigns. Scott’s prior governor and senate races have all been close, but he can self-fund and managed to defeat Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in 2018, an otherwise great year for Democrats. President Biden was able to make a late play for the state in 2020, when polling showed him in the lead, thanks in part because megadonor Michael Bloomberg funded a nine-figure push that included Florida, Texas, and Ohio. Trump comfortably won the state anyway. Democrats all but surrendered the state in 2022 as DeSantis raised huge sums of cash ahead of his presidential run and put up blowout margins in his re-election.
Back in July, when Joe Biden was still running, his reelection chair Jen O-Malley Dillon openly admitted that they didn’t consider Florida to be a battleground state, prompting a flurry of drama as it contradicted a prior campaign memo arguing the state was in play. While Harris has closed the gap against Trump, it’s safe to say that any honest actor working for her would likely tell you exactly what Dillon said just last month. A July memo by Dillon touting Harris’ widening electoral path made no mention of Florida.
The View From The Trump Campaign
Trump spokesman Brian Hughes said their campaign would “love” for team Harris to invest money in the state, and that they “fully expect” Florida to be in their column.
“Democrats claiming Florida would be in play for them is delusional at best,” Hughes said. “The best way to understand that would be to follow the money: The Democrat infrastructure is not making a serious financial play in Florida, and it shows a rare good strategic decision making.
Notable
- Chuck Schumer told Politico last week that he’s confident Democrats will keep the Senate and even pick up seats — potentially, the moderator noted, in Florida. Still, Schumer was noncommittal when pressed on whether they’d be investing money to flip the state, saying “wait and see.”
- Steve Schale, a veteran Democratic strategist in Florida, argues that the party should worry about the long-term consequences of avoiding the state. “If they continue to raise good money to fund an expanded map, keeping the fight here is just smart politics,” he writes.