View / How kidnapping became an industry in Nigeria

Insecurity was a major issue during Nigeria’s 2015 election, my first as a Reuters correspondent there. It still is today, ahead of presidential polls in January — on a far larger scale, with implications for the country’s economy greater than ever before.

That 2015 election is significant because it was held a year after nearly 300 girls were abducted from a school in the northeast Nigerian town of Chibok by jihadist group Boko Haram. That mass abduction, which garnered global headlines, was the template for a kidnap-for-ransom strategy that has been honed by criminal gangs who mostly operate in northern Nigeria but in recent years have spawned copycat abductions in other parts of the country. Mass kidnappings have now become an industry, as our Lagos-based correspondent Alexander Onukwue reports.

That election also marked a key step in incumbent President Bola Tinubu’s path to power: He fused his southwestern supporter base with that of northern politician Muhammadu Buhari to create a new party, the All Progressives Congress. Buhari benefited from outrage over the Chibok girls’ abduction to become the first opposition candidate to unseat a president, and Tinubu succeeded Buhari in power.

But the problem that helped thrust Tinubu’s APC into power is now a multi-headed hydra that goes far beyond the northeastern jihadist insurgency. When combined with the rising cost of living tied to his economic policy overhaul, it poses the greatest threat to his bid for a second presidential term. His main rivals are banking on persuading the electorate that they can better protect people, while also making life more affordable.

Even if, as in the 2023 election, Tinubu’s rivals split the opposition vote, mounting anger around insecurity could mean he only limps through to reelection. And, with time, the macroeconomic benefits of his policies could be eroded if investors come to believe widespread insecurity makes it unsafe to operate in the country.