Trump is looming over US climate talks in China

The Nov. 5 election looms large over this meeting. During Trump’s first term, relations with China ground to a halt, especially on climate. On the surface, there’s little reason for China to agree to anything major with Podesta. House Republicans are expected next week to push forward a number of anti-China bills on electric vehicle tax credits and other issues that, while doomed in the Senate, give a good preview of what China can expect if Trump wins. China has already independently stepped up its climate policy ambitions in the last few months, extending new cheap lending for green energy and curbing permits for new coal plants, among other measures. That means Podesta may have a negotiating partner still willing to keep up the Biden administration’s momentum on climate even if Trump wins.

“This trip is about preparing for the scenario [in which Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election] and deciding how to leverage climate as an issue that will help stabilize the broader bilateral relationship during the transition phase,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “But it’s also about injecting some resilience into that relationship, because there’s a shared interest from both sides to be able to talk to each other regardless of the election outcome.”

One thing Podesta should do, Shuo said, is to promote more partnerships between states or cities instead. California and the province of Hainan agreed in June to collaborate on climate action; other pairs of states or cities in both countries could follow suit, as well as private companies and NGOs. China may also be willing to continue to press for certain climate policies that have been priorities for Biden and that come with significant cost savings for industry, like reducing methane leakage.

One area where Podesta will likely continue to struggle is on climate finance fundraising. The US has pressed China for years to contribute more to global funds to help developing countries adapt to climate impacts. Climate finance will be the central issue at COP29, and China’s willingness to step up as a donor will likely make or break the summit’s success. But during preliminary negotiations in June, Chinese diplomats continued to strongly resist accepting any additional financial responsibility.

Podesta’s meetings will also be shaded by ongoing trade tensions related to China’s dominance in the supply chains for EVs, solar panels, and critical minerals. Last week the Biden administration revealed plans for a price support program to help US mineral mining projects compete with China; in June, it cleared the way for higher tariffs on solar panels produced by subsidiaries of Chinese companies in Southeast Asia. The US market remains critical for Chinese cleantech exporters, so it will be hard to separate disagreements about trade barriers from the broader negotiations on domestic climate targets.

Meanwhile, China is working to shore up trade relations that exclude the US. Xi met in Beijing this week with a number of heads of state from African countries, including President Félix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, to cultivate them as customers for Chinese cleantech and suppliers of critical minerals.