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Congress used to be prime recruiting territory for incoming presidents looking to staff up their administrations. Hiring from the Hill won’t be that easy next year — no matter who wins the White House.
That’s because Election Day is likely to end with tight margins in both chambers of Congress, giving a precarious hold on power to whichever party prevails. Many aspiring presidential nominees who want off the Hill in 2025 will face a two-part problem: Their departures could shrink their party’s numbers in a closely divided Capitol, and getting confirmed by the Senate could prove challenging. Each party has also taken hits to its power thanks to seemingly slam-dunk special elections that clanged off the rim, making it even riskier to tap members for Cabinet jobs.
“It would be unfortunate if we sought to mess up our [potential] majority because of ambition and asininity,” Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo., told Semafor. “We would have embraced an uncontrollable desire for power.”
That hasn’t stopped the chatter among Republicans and Democrats alike about which lawmakers could snag a plum post under either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. If the former president wins, there’s talk of Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton or Florida Rep. Mike Waltz for a Defense Department post or even a surprise Democratic Cabinet pick, according to people familiar with the conversations.
And if Harris wins in November, Democrats are abuzz over who the vice president might pluck to restock the party’s ranks after a remarkably stable four years of Biden Cabinet staffing. Sens. Chris Coons of Delaware and Chris Murphy of Connecticut are often cited as secretary of state prospects, but House Democrats are also in the mix: Ohio Rep. Joyce Beatty has publicly angled for an ambassadorship since President Joe Biden took office.
Yet some are already predicting dashed dreams.
“The majority is going to be very slim, so I think few people will be able to leave to join an administration,” Rep. Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., told Semafor.
Republicans will already have one Senate vacancy to contend with if Trump wins: His running mate, JD Vance, would vacate a seat in Ohio and eventually trigger a special election for a term that expires in 2028. Republicans have also performed relatively worse in special elections lately.
Plenty of Republicans appear ready to join a second Trump administration. The House GOP’s fourth-ranked leader, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, is potentially in the mix for the Department of Veterans Affairs or even the United Nations. And Texas Rep. Ronny Jackson, who served as Trump’s White House physician, could easily seek a return to his staff (although it’s unclear how Jackson’s current medical licensing status might affect that; he also famously failed to get confirmed to Trump’s Cabinet in 2018).
Reps. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., and Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., might seem like safe choices for Harris for top posts; both represent comfortable blue districts. But that’s hardly an instantaneous process, and House Republicans have learned this year that, when a majority is smaller than a dozen, one member’s departure can make all the difference.
Most of the sitting lawmakers cited in this story declined to comment or didn’t respond to a comment request. Waltz said he’s currently “focused” on representing his district and electing Trump.
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Plucking from Congress for administration appointments can produce unpredictable special elections. During Trump’s first term, Democrats got an unexpected jolt of energy after then-GOP Reps. Tom Price and Ryan Zinke left for his Cabinet, shrinking the Republican majority and making their seats more challenging to hold.
And no error was more glaring than Trump’s decision to nominate then-Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., leading to a gobsmacking Democratic special election win that showed any state can turn competitive with the right (or wrong) candidates — remember Roy Moore? With a 50-50 Senate majority when he took over in 2021, Biden took fewer chances with staffing from the Senate.
The Biden administration and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi were similarly careful with Democrats’ tight House majority, orchestrating vacancies over time to keep control ahead of the 2022 midterms. If Harris wins in November, Democrats are likely to adopt a similar strategy.
Either party’s new administration will also contend with donors clamoring for top spots. Harris will have her own crop of veteran Biden advisors who might want to stay on should she win.
Trump could also look at first-term officials who’ve remained loyal to him, like former Treasury chief Steven Mnuchin or former trade representative Robert Lighthizer, ahead of ambitious members of Congress. Not to mention that Trump would have a new pool of job candidates from the private sector.
Kadia's and Burgess' View
Staffing up a Cabinet after an electoral romp is relatively easy for a new president, but most forecasts see November as too tight to get comfortable. That means a lot of the names you’re seeing bandied about inside the Beltway — especially lawmakers from battleground states and districts — are unlikely job candidates at best.
Some big names in Congress are already carving their own path away from the White House: Cotton is running for the Senate GOP’s No. 3 leadership position, for example. And on top of the brutal confirmation fights that tend to erupt in a tight Senate majority, there’s also a chance that Harris becomes president with a Republican Senate, hamstringing her ability to fill her Cabinet.
Popular members of the opposing party could still get confirmed easily, given the clubby nature of the Senate. Democrats like Coons and Murphy have built years-long relationships across the aisle.
In the end, it’s a numbers game: Presidential nominees only need a majority vote in the Senate, but the size of a majority can mean more in terms of agenda-setting than any single pick. So both parties are focused on seeking a bigger cushion in either chamber of Congress to potentially ease presidential staffing decisions.
Democrats “need to focus on winning” up and down the ballot first, Rep. Nanette Barragán, D-Calif., told Semafor. Then, Barragán added, “if a member or two are being considered for an administration position, there will be a way to make it happen.”
Notable
- Potential Trump secretaries of state include Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Cotton, who is also considered a potential match there or for the Pentagon, Axios writes.
- In addition to Murphy and Coons leading the State Department under Harris, Virginia Democratic Sen. Mark Warner is also an ally and could ascend to director of national intelligence, the Wall Street Journal reports.