The News
The coming winter could prove the “sternest of tests” for Ukraine’s power supply, a new report from the International Energy Agency warned, as the country faces increasing Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure — the most recent just hours after the report’s release.
Ukraine’s electricity grid cannot keep up with demand, and a sizable deficit will remain even with the ongoing support of Kyiv’s European allies.
Heat supply is also at risk in multiple Ukrainian regions, particularly those along the war’s front lines, and in the capital, Kyiv. The city of Kharkiv, among the worst-hit by the conflict, doesn’t have nearly enough heat generators or boilers to meet its needs, the report found.
European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen announced the bloc will provide Ukraine with an additional €160 million ($178 million) in energy aid this year, paid for by Russia’s frozen assets in the EU.
SIGNALS
Attacks on Ukraine’s grid may violate humanitarian law
During the summer months, Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leaving cities in the dark for hours at a time and damaging the grid’s longer-term ability to cope with the typical increase in demand that comes in wintertime. A UN report published Thursday stressed the attacks likely violate humanitarian law, because of their number and coordinated nature, and because Moscow openly acknowledges them. The damage done has cascading effects, hampering healthcare, businesses, education, and other civilian infrastructure, the report added.
Energy reconstruction is hampered by political infighting
Bureaucratic infighting and political machinations have significantly hampered efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s infrastructure against Russian attacks, the former CEO of Ukraine’s state-owned grid told Semafor’s Tim McDonnell. The country has rushed to restore energy capacity, which has been halved since the beginning of the war, but progress is “impeded by anxiety from Western governments, development banks, and private investors that money and equipment sent to the country could be lost in a ‘black pit’ of state inefficiency and self-dealing,” the CEO said. Some of Kyiv’s recent policy decisions, like incentives to attract more private investment, are “too little, too late,” he added.
Russian escalation remains a concern for Ukraine’s allies
The IEA report underscored the urgency of discussions among Ukraine’s allies as to whether Kyiv can use Western-provided long-range weapons to strike further into Russian territory; Kyiv has argued that doing so would be essential to hampering Russia’s efforts to further target its energy infrastructure. The US has expressed concern that doing so would escalate the war, Politico wrote, leaving Ukraine “on tenterhooks” as it continues to push for permission. Meanwhile, the European Parliament voted overwhelmingly Thursday to ask member states to lift the restrictions on EU-provided weapons. “Ukraine is being forced to fight with its hands tied behind its back,” a French lawmaker told UkrInform.