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Democrats are watching with growing unease as GOP super PACs pour money into Senate races that will determine control of Congress next year, cutting into their long-running financial advantage this election season.
The late influx of cash in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Maryland threatens Democrats’ tenuous two-seat hold on the Senate, which is certain to drop by one in November thanks to a lost seat in West Virginia. Although traditional Republican groups are spending plenty, super PACs boosting individual GOP Senate candidates are writing huge checks in the final weeks of the campaign.
Allies of former Maryland GOP Gov. Larry Hogan made $18 million in fall reservations to boost his Senate bid, following a more than $60 million post-Labor Day planned offensive in Pennsylvania by a group backing Republican nominee Dave McCormick, according to sources tracking media buys. That’s on top of a crypto super PAC that has poured in an eye-watering $34 million to defeat Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by helping his rival, Republican Bernie Moreno.
“It’s very concerning, not just in terms of the outcome of the races but in the message that it sends to people in office. That the folks you need to listen to aren’t your voters but the billionaires who can cough up $60 million,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., told Semafor.
The practice of super PACs supporting a single candidate started in presidential races, he added, “and now it’s moved down to major Senate races. I think it is a trend.”
Big spending doesn’t guarantee a win, of course, but it makes top Republicans feel better about their chances. The late tide of money from GOP super PACs, in fact, comes after top Republicans delivered urgent warnings that winnable races could be out of their reach.
And every seat matters, because the 2026 Senate map will feature more opportunities for Democrats.
“They’re all very tight margin of error races and look to be tightening further … outside groups see that. They know these races are competitive,” said Montana Sen. Steve Daines, the GOP’s campaign arm chair. “We’re seeing increased interest.”
Democrats still count key advantages in this year’s Senate battle. Their candidates’ early financial decision-making allows them to get more advertising bang for their bucks than big outside groups, since candidates get the best rates. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, Republicans are outspending Democrats but paying more for their TV airtime, leading to relative parity on the airwaves, according to both parties.
“They’re pouring in a ton of money. So we’ve got to be concerned about that,” said Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, who chairs Democrats’ campaign arm. “There’s a diminishing rate of return as super PAC money comes in.”
Both parties have benefited from super PAC spending over the years, but Democrats are sweating the sheer magnitude of the money this time around. Brown said he expected big money to come in and Republicans are “fulfilling my expectations.”
The pro-McCormick PAC has lined up the largest single TV reservation of the cycle, according to Democratic sources, and may end up as the largest candidate-specific Senate super PAC in history. Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey, the Democratic recipient of all those super PAC attacks, deadpanned: “It’s a big number. Might be a record.”
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The Senate GOP campaign arm’s executive director, Jason Thielman, told donors over the weekend that the GOP is at or near equal air-war footing with Democrats in Montana, Ohio, Maryland, and Pennsylvania but raised concerns over Democratic advantages in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to an attendee at the meeting.
The Daines-led campaign arm is also cutting hybrid ads with GOP candidates to get better ad rates.
Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ top super PAC, made much of its reservations about six months ago, giving them better spending rates. Sarah Guggenheimer, a spokesperson for the group, said “Mitch McConnell and his pal’s late-notice reservations will do nothing to distract voters from what they’ve already learned” about Republican candidates.
Despite that confidence, Democrats’ drive to hold the Senate remains challenging, particularly with the GOP leading polls in Montana, looking competitive in Ohio and pouring resources into Maryland and Pennsylvania.
Another slate of battlegrounds could limit potential losses for the party.
Democratic Sens. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Jacky Rosen of Nevada have enjoyed consistent leads in their races, and Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Ruben Gallego of Arizona are still favored in their open-seat Senate campaigns.
Yet Republican PACs like the Senate Leadership Fund haven’t finalized their fall spending decisions, even as they spend millions of dollars in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana. And Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson said he’s been lobbying outside groups to spend on defeating Baldwin.
Burgess’s view
It’s decision time for the Senate campaign world’s big spenders. Montana and Ohio remain the most important races on the map this fall, simply because those states are red enough that Republican candidates can win them even if Donald Trump loses the presidential election.
After those two states, however, Democrats could face more struggles in the coming weeks. They may have to shore up Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland if Hogan’s allies start chipping at her lead, though a blue-state win is still tough for the former governor.
Peters said Democrats “will do everything we need to do” to hold Maryland, while party sources said the Democratic group Women Vote! has spent $4 million to help Alsobrooks, with more on the way.
Late Democratic spending against Rick Scott of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas would amount to an insurance policy in case Brown or Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., can’t overcome their red states’ leanings. But both of those states are expensive … and elusive: Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Florida since 2012 and haven’t won one in Texas since 1988.
Still, a national Democratic strategist said there’s “real potential for offensive opportunities in Texas and Florida.”
Democratic candidates like Baldwin and Rosen are running ahead of the top of the ticket, where the race is closer between the former president and Vice President Kamala Harris. But in the end, Senate strategists in both parties expect those headwinds to shrink.