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Casting her economic agenda as “pragmatic” and her ideas as “practical solutions” in a speech on Wednesday, Vice President Kamala Harris is putting an emphasis on policies that have a decent chance of being enacted — even, potentially, with Republicans sharing power.
After promising the world to progressives in her last run, the Democratic nominee has focused on more modest gains this time: Signature policies include a boost to child tax credits, an increase in deductions for new small businesses, help for first-time homebuyers, and incentives for new developments. She frequently mentions cracking down on bad actors, like price-gougers and unscrupulous corporate landlords, a broad set of goals she can tackle through the executive branch as well as Congress. On the other end of the spectrum, Harris has also scaled back a Biden-proposed capital gains tax increase that had virtually no chance of becoming law.
“There seems to be a method to this — it’s an achievable looking agenda,” Jim Kessler, Vice President for Policy at center-left think tank Third Way, told Semafor. “There’s a lot that could be done in a reconciliation bill, or a tax package, which can take on a life of its own.”
It’s a shift from the 2020 cycle, when Harris and other Democrats’ platforms were orbiting Medicare For All, while competing to find other moonshot policies for just about every domestic issue. Even President Biden, who was more hesitant to chase the left’s support, took office with an ambitious legislative and executive agenda on numerous fronts — which he pursued, with mixed success, in office.
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Benjy’s view
Biden dreamed of an FDR-sized presidency when he ran in 2020, with hopes he’d secure large Democratic majorities that would enact sweeping changes and transform the welfare state. Harris’ approach suggests she’s preparing for a situation more like FDR’s successor, Harry Truman, who battled a “do-nothing” Republican Congress that bottled up his domestic agenda.
The broader Democratic party has scaled back its ambitions somewhat too, but the specifics of Harris’ plans also reflect the party’s near-term electoral chances, an underrated factor in how politicians decide on their platform.
When Biden was running last cycle, Democrats were dreaming of a genuine landslide win, one that gave them significant majorities and a mandate to go big on a range of issues — not just on policy, some hoped, but on structural reforms like expanding the court or adding new states. It didn’t turn out that way, as Trump proved more resilient than his poor polling indicated and Democrats clawed their way to only slim majorities, but that result was a surprise to many in the party at the time.
This time there are no illusions about a “blue wave” sweeping the nation. Harris is consciously portraying herself as an “underdog” as polling shows a toss-up race for the White House, control of the House coming down to a small pool of swing seats, and a Senate that leans Republican thanks to a challenging map that could hinge on Sen. Jon Tester mounting an upset victory in deep-red Montana. What was considered a fairly disappointing position for Democrats after 2020 — a 50-50 Senate and single-digit House majority — would count as a spectacular best-case scenario in 2024.
If Harris enters office without her party controlling Congress, she would be the first president to do so since George H.W. Bush. Even getting basic tasks done, like filling out her cabinet, could be a slog with a Republican-led Senate. Defending Biden’s considerable, already-passed agenda on climate, health care, and manufacturing from being picked away by budget talks and a 6-3 Supreme Court might end up her top priority.
Where she might have more room to operate, though, is on taxes — an area where Democrats would have significant power to act with bare majorities and even some leverage to work with Republicans in divided government.
Thanks to the scheduled 2025 expiration of portions of the 2017 Trump tax cuts and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act’s health care tax credits, the next president will have a significant opportunity to cut deals with the other side should they end up sharing power. Notably much of what Harris proposes is “scalable,” as Kessler puts it: Trillions of dollars in expanded child tax credits may not be possible, but a modest bump might get some bipartisan support as part of a larger negotiated package. The same could be true of Harris ideas like greater deductions for startups or raising the earned income tax credit for workers.
A few base hits on Harris’ signature issues could help her build a resume for 2028. It could also help mitigate the risks of exciting her base now, only to leave them bitter later: One reason some Democratic critics of Bernie Sanders in 2016 were upset with his go-big plans that year was that the party was near-certain to lose the House, setting up a generation of young supporters for disillusionment if they ended up stuck with incremental policy wins. A few key tax breaks may not be as exciting as a policy revolution, but “promises made, promises kept” might be the more sustainable re-election slogan.
Room for Disagreement
Harris is known for being cautious, and there are dangers to playing it safe as well. The New Republic’s Alex Shephard argues that sticking to a few items that poll well and don’t scare off moderates “is also risky, not least because it makes Harris look like she doesn’t stand for anything.” Demonstrating her independence from Biden and winning over voters who tell pollsters they need more information about her may require her to take “uncomfortable, even controversial positions.”
Notable
- Business leaders are trying to gauge Harris’ intentions along with voters. Mark Cuban has emerged as one important ambassador for Harris there, Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig reports, as well as an informal advisor.