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Mitch McConnell often dodges direct questions about Donald Trump. Not when it comes to tariffs.
McConnell turned heads this week when he bluntly declared that he’s “not a fan of tariffs” in response to a question about Trump’s proposals to slap huge levies on imported goods. Perhaps it was a sign of what’s to come.
The Republican leader is soon ending his reign of 18 years atop the Senate GOP, but he will still represent his state of Kentucky for at least two more years. And he has not forgotten that in retaliation against Trump’s first-term tariffs, Europe slapped fees on his home state’s most famous export.
“Take the bourbon industry, for example. In Kentucky, it’s really been adversely impacted by European tariffs,” McConnell said in a Thursday interview with Semafor. “I represent Kentucky, in addition to having this job. We’ve had a very bad experience in our signature industry with tariffs.”
McConnell didn’t vow to stop the former president from making good on a flirtation with tariffs that could extend to all US imports; but he did emphasize that “I just differ with President Trump” on the issue. At a time when unity is paramount for his party it’s notable he’s at all comfortable clearly expressing himself on an idea that many free-traders dance around.
And as McConnell’s career winds down, he’s sending a signal that his exit from leadership might even lead to more candid views on hot topics. He’ll still be one of the most closely watched Republicans in Washington.
McConnell, age 82, has nearly three more months to go as Senate GOP leader, though, and plenty left to do. Foremost on his mind is leaving his successor as party leader with a majority, which would give Republican senators power over the agenda and — as he sees it, at least — help preserve the legislative filibuster.
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Most Republicans are confident that they will flip the Senate given their ample pick-up opportunities in red states, even if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House and Democrats flip the House. Of course, many Republicans thought the same thing two years ago – and Democrats picked up a Senate seat.
So you won’t find the buttoned-up McConnell making grand predictions that it’s over for Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, even as polls show the Montanan in the most precarious position of his career: “I wouldn’t go that far.”
And McConnell’s seen his party blow too many races over the years to predict a big win just yet. He’d only hazard that his party has a “good chance” at taking back the Senate, which would require a minimum of flipping Montana in addition to the sure-fire pick-up of West Virginia.
He’s more definitive about Democrats’ move this week to pour millions of dollars into Senate battles in Texas and Florida, calling it a “waste of money.”
“I don’t think they have a chance in either Texas or Florida,” McConnell said of races in which two of his biggest conservative detractors, Rick Scott and Ted Cruz, are running for reelection.
Democrats haven’t forgotten about the drama between McConnell and the two senators he’s predicting will prevail; Scott ran against him in the 2022 leadership race, and Cruz voted against him. Since then, McConnell and Scott continued scuffling; before then, Cruz used McConnell as a foil in his 2016 presidential campaign.
(“Mitch McConnell’s well-documented disdain for Cruz and Scott is shared by the voters of Texas and Florida,” said David Bergstein, a spokesperson for Democrats’ campaign arm.)
McConnell isn’t predicting victory yet for Trump, either, calling the presidential race “really competitive.” He called the former president “practically and morally responsible” for the violent Capitol riot of Jan. 6, 2021. And after a long period of arm’s-length relations with Trump after the 2020 election – and McConnell voting to acquit in the second impeachment trial – he has since endorsed Trump and engaged in a handshake at a party meeting.
A Trump presidency would mean a possible threat to another of his top priorities, beyond tariffs. He spent much of this Congress advocating for aid to Ukraine, money that vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance opposed and that Trump has shown little interest in.
Here, too, McConnell made clear he’s not going to shrink away.
“I’m confident that I’m going to be arguing that it’s in America’s interest, our interest, for Ukraine to beat the Russians,” he said. “No matter which administration.”
The filibuster makes a third front for intra party friction. As president, Trump repeatedly leaned on the GOP leader to end the filibuster in order to get his agenda to pass through the Senate with a simple majority vote.
“I had a one-word answer: ‘No,’” McConnell said on Thursday. If Trump tried again to quash the filibuster, he insisted, “I think every single Republican member of the Senate would say no.”
Burgess’s view
There are plenty of signs that a post-leadership McConnell would be less restrained and more willing to emphasize his personal perspective, as he follows Nancy Pelosi from party leadership into free agency. That might lead to his old-school Reagan Republicanism clearly contradicting some of his colleagues, or Trump.
He told me earlier this year that being Republican leader “requires you to keep your mouth shut a lot.” So after spending the better part of his 18 years carefully weighing every comment (and non-comment), perhaps McConnell will show a more freewheeling side.
Still, it’s hard for me to believe that McConnell would begin a true YOLO era, particularly if Trump is in the White House. He appears to have at least three issues on which he’s willing to break from the former president – the filibuster, tariffs and Ukraine.
Even that is something few senior Capitol Hill Republicans are willing to do.