The News
Sudan’s army launched a major offensive to recapture the country’s capital from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, escalating hostilities in a bitter civil war despite US-led efforts to broker a ceasefire.
Sudan — one of Africa’s poorest countries even before the conflict — has been mired in a civil war between two rival factions of its military government since April 2023, sparking the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
As many as 150,000 people have been killed, while more than 10 million have been displaced, with many moving to similarly destitute South Sudan and Chad. A group of humanitarian aid organizations warned this month that failing to achieve a ceasefire could lead to “a starvation crisis of historic proportions,” Al Jazeera reported.
SIGNALS
Sudan’s army makes small gains so far
The Sudanese army made small advances into Khartoum on Thursday, Al Jazeera reported. The Rapid Support Forces have controlled most of the capital since fighting broke out in April 2023, with the army holding onto small enclaves in Khartoum. Some analysts suspect that fighting will increase across the country in the coming months. The dry season is returning in Sudan, which usually lasts from October to December, allowing both parties in the conflict to conduct larger assaults. “As the earth dries, the fighting is set to pick up,” the Sudan War Monitor wrote.
Local aid organizations have stepped up as larger ones leave
Several large aid organizations have left Sudan, leaving local groups to lead the humanitarian response in many of the worst affected areas. Shallin Chikoto of Community Organized Relief Effort, a nonprofit working with Sudanese groups, told Semafor that traditional humanitarian systems are “falling short, mainly because of access issues.” Working with grassroots organizations “has really helped us reach the most vulnerable” Chikoto said, helping to deliver aid in otherwise hard to reach areas. Tom Perriello, the US Special Envoy for Sudan, called for more support for the neighborhood-based aid groups, known as emergency response rooms, telling Semafor that they were “a rare bright spot” in a “horrific” situation.
US-led peace initiatives fail to reach a breakthrough
US-led efforts to push for a ceasefire in Sudan have continued on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this week, the BBC reported. At the last round of peace talks in August, neither side sat down at the negotiating table, although mediators were able to secure the reopening of key humanitarian routes. Earlier peace talks in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain did not lead to breakthroughs either. Three experts at the United States Institute of Peace wrote that in the wake of failed peace efforts, “more focus should be placed on securing access for life-saving aid” rather than focusing primarily on a ceasefire that may not be achievable.