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China’s struggling to manage a troubled economy and rethinking its strategy in the South Pacific. It won’t find any olive branches in Washington.
Democrats and Republicans are preparing to pile new pressure on China next year, no matter who wins the White House or holds control of Congress, including aggressive tariffs, more aid to Taiwan, more criticism of human rights abuses, and a crackdown on Chinese technology.
Donald Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of 60% or more on all Chinese imports, an idea far more popular among Republicans compared to his broader tariff strategy. And while Kamala Harris doesn’t talk quite as tough on the tariff front as the former president, the Biden administration’s decision to maintain and even increase some Trump-era tariffs on China “validates the policy,” Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo, told Semafor.
Indicators show domestic growth slowing for America’s chief global economic rival, and global conventional wisdom on its inexorable rise has shifted dramatically. The Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer, for example, wrote to clients this week that Asian and Western leaders gathered at the United Nations believe China “is now at its peak.”
But almost nothing unites partisan Washington the way China does. And so there’s little desire to pull back from US policymaking designed to confront Beijing over its stated desire to absorb Taiwan, its claims to vast territorial waters, or its growing military and cyber capabilities.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said that new tough-on-China measures could make it into “must-pass legislation before the end of this year.”
“The Chinese Communist Party has made clear they will not stop their campaign to rival America on the world stage. We will not stop either,” Schumer said in a statement to Semafor.
China hawks in both parties are still trying to pass legislation to permanently screen and restrict outbound US investment in critical sectors of the rival nation, so far an elusive target. That’s on top of broad support for boosting security assistance to Taiwan.
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There are some distinctions within Washington’s bipartisan consensus, said Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md. He cited Republicans who want to declare Taiwan a “sovereign state” rather than continue current policy and disagreements about how far to scale back trade with China.
“China plays the long game, and so we need a strategy that also plays the long game,” Van Hollen told Semafor. “There’s a consensus that we need to address the China challenge. Within that overall framework, I think there are big differences of opinion.”
Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, the top Democrat on the House’s select committee on China, said that “this isn’t just about seizing on the PRC’s weaknesses to better ourselves. … We have to do the work to shore up our own flaws economically, technologically, and militarily too.”
Michigan Rep. John Moolenaar, the committee’s Republican chairman, said the US needs to be prepared for Chinese leader Xi Jinping “to move up his schedule” for a possible Taiwan invasion “if China’s economy worsens.”
Still, it’s not clear what the bipartisan China committee will look like in the next Congress, or whether it will survive at all. House Speaker Mike Johnson has vowed to continue its work, though Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries hasn’t divulged specific plans for the committee if his party takes the majority next month.
“We are hopeful that our bipartisan work will continue in earnest, no matter who is in the majority next Congress,” Krishnamoorthi said. Moolenaar called Jeffries “integral” to the committee’s formation.
Morgan and Burgess’ view
US politicians have plenty to gain with voters by getting tough on Beijing, which is viewed negatively by nearly eight in 10 Americans. And there’s simply no sign of that changing, no matter how much the Chinese economy appears to wobble.
“National security isn’t just about how many guns or planes or tanks or ships you’ve got. It’s also about who’s going to lead on transformational technologies,” said Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., the Intelligence Committee chair. “We can’t afford to take our feet off the gas pedal or we’re effectively ceding ground to China.”
Trump’s presidency ushered in a more openly aggressive posture toward Beijing that has become near-standard practice in both parties, as policymakers move toward more protectionist strategies to shore up the US economy.
While China’s economy is in trouble, and plenty of US investors have begun turning away from its financial sector, that hasn’t stopped it from posing a myriad of economic and security challenges to the US. For one, China dominates the electric vehicle supply chain as well as solar panel manufacturing, forcing the US to play catch-up.
The View From Beijing
During a meeting earlier this year, Xi told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Washington needed to view China’s development “in a positive light” in order for the US-China relationship to “truly stabilize, improve and move forward,” according to a Chinese government statement.
Notable
- China’s housing glut threatens to further hurt its economy, according to the Wall Street Journal.
- Mexico has emerged as a big winner in the US-China trade spat, CNBC reported.
- Trump is ready to go harder on China in a potential second term, Morgan wrote earlier this year.