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Republicans are on the verge of a family dispute — literally.
On one side of the party’s divide are socially conservative groups focused on the benefits of promoting bigger families in America. They’ve long had a champion in JD Vance, who favors expanding the child tax credit and as a Senate candidate once expressed interest in providing forgivable loans to married couples with at least three children.
But other fiscal hawks are openly skeptical about Vance’s bid to use the tax code and other government policies to boost flagging birthrates.
Donald Trump has yet to endorse his own running mate’s proposed $5,000 child tax credit, and Vance dodged the question of whether Trump agrees with him during Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate. Even so, some conservative groups are zeroing in on a boosted child tax credit as their top priority next year, since the current credit will drop to $1,000 in 2026 if Congress doesn’t step in.
“I know that there’s a lot of disagreement within the Republican Party on this and this is going to be an internal fight as to what this actually looks like,” Jon Schweppe, policy director at the American Principles Project, told Semafor.
Vance has good reason to prod the GOP to fully embrace new benefits for families. Kamala Harris has opened a huge gender gap with Trump in polls as she campaigns on establishing a $6,000 expanded child tax credit for newborns, capping childcare costs and providing financial aid to first-time homebuyers. During Tuesday’s debate, Vance made a clear appeal to women voters by touting a GOP agenda that would address the high cost of childcare and family building.
“I want us, as a Republican Party, to be pro-family in the fullest sense of the word,” Vance said. “I want us to make it easier for moms to afford to have babies. I want it to make it easier for young families to afford a home so they can afford a place to raise that family.”
It’s far from clear that Trump is sold on that approach; the Republican nominee has expressed support for government-backed in vitro fertilization coverage, without providing specifics, and said he would evaluate the Ohio senator’s $5,000 child tax credit.
“President Trump will alleviate the financial burdens facing American families by expanding the child tax credit, lower childcare costs that have increased by 32% since Kamala Harris took office, and continue to support expansions for family leave,” Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement when Semafor asked whether Trump endorses Vance’s boosted credit.
Another longtime social conservative leader, meanwhile, is working behind the scenes to further realign the GOP in Vance’s direction.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee visited Capitol Hill last week to speak to Republican staffers about expanding the child tax credit, instituting paid family leave and baby bonuses. He also didn’t get into specific numerical figures, according to Schweppe, who also spoke at the event.
Huckabee, a two-time presidential candidate, recently signed onto the “Blueprint for Life” that urges new federal benefits for families.
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Vance has sway over the direction of the GOP, but Trump is still in charge. So plenty of Republicans are waiting for a firmer signal from the nominee on how he would approach family benefits.
“Vance is certainly increasing attention on these issues, but he is not the top of the ticket,” Abby McCloskey, a Republican strategist who has worked on several presidential campaigns, told Semafor. “Trump has not been particularly clear about what he would do this go-around for families.”
Social conservatives see potential allies in Republicans who previously advocated to expand the child tax credit in the same mold as Vance. In 2017, Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Mike Lee of Utah pushed to dent child poverty as the GOP assembled its tax cut package.
Trump’s lack of clarity is particularly resonant for the debate given many Republicans’ reluctance to significantly expand the child tax credit; party orthodoxy continues to cut against monthly checks that might resemble a basic income program as Democrats favor.
For instance, when Utah GOP Sen. Mitt Romney recently reintroduced his proposal to provide up to $4,200 in benefits per child depending on age, and established a $2,800 child tax credit for pregnant mothers, no Republican colleagues signed on.
When Romney last offered the bill, Sen. Steve Daines of Montana had co-sponsored it, several months before he was elected to helm the Senate GOP’s campaign arm. This time, Daines withheld his support. “Senator Daines wants to keep all options open for strengthening the CTC and extending it to pregnant mothers,” a Daines aide told Semafor.
Notably, Romney’s proposal would condition future benefits on parents’ paying income tax. His bill is endorsed by influential anti-abortion groups like Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and National Right to Life, and a Romney aide said the office is still working on lining up supporters.
Joseph’s view
Vance is trying to surf a growing current in the Republican Party when it comes to family benefits like the child tax credit. Still, while Trump has made his pitch for universal tariffs a centerpiece of his campaign speeches, he hasn’t invested the same energy making the case for pro-family policies.
Early last year, Trump touted a proposal for “baby bonuses,” but the idea faded away.
“If Mr. Trump is not talking about it, it’s not a priority,” Douglas Holz-Eakin at the American Action Forum said.
If Trump and Vance win, Republicans can expect either an effort by the latter’s camp to lobby the former in favor of a new push for government aid to families – or a reversion to Trump’s previous lack of emphasis on the issue. Some conservatives choose to remain optimistic.
“There’s definitely been a move that Vance is trying to accelerate in the party,” said Patrick Brown, a fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
The View From The Harris campaign
Democrats don’t see any mystery about their rivals’ professed interest in benefits for families. They argue that Trump will prioritize the wealthiest Americans at the expense of the middle class if he wins another term in November.
“While Vice President Harris is fighting to lower costs and help families get ahead, Trump and Vance’s Project 2025 agenda will sell out middle class families to enrich their billionaire donors: gutting child care, dismantling public education, and raising costs on the middle class,” Harris campaign spokesperson Joseph Costello said in a statement.