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Congress will wake up to a painful hangover on the morning after Election Day, and it’s likely to last long past the next president’s inauguration.
The crisis stems from a series of big decisions that the House and Senate punted into what’s known as the lame duck, the biennial stretch of policymaking that happens between the election of a new Congress and its official start. Sometimes lame ducks are, well, lame — and sometimes they’re packed with drama, thanks to the natural tension between a party that’s giving up power and the party that’s preparing to take over.
This time around, lawmakers have a Dec. 20 government shutdown deadline to contend with, which is now intertwined with increasingly urgent calls for billions of dollars in Hurricane Helene relief. On top of that, Congress has to clear a must-pass defense policy bill that’s always a magnet for political controversies, as well as deal with expiring farm and flood insurance laws.
Add on the expiration of the US debt limit that will hit in January, and it’s easy to see the next president facing a pileup on the Hill even before Inauguration Day, whether it’s Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Such are the consequences of months upon months of inaction during one of the least productive Congresses ever.
“It’s terrible. It’s just an indication of congressional dysfunction,” Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt., told Semafor. “The reality is a lot of uncertainty. The dynamics could be totally disrupted, depending on what the outcome of the election is.”
Some senators had hoped for at least some sense of what a potential spending agreement between the House and Senate might look like in order to start negotiations now. Instead, “everything’s jammed up,” lamented Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the top Republican on the Appropriations Committee.
“It didn’t have to be this way,” she added.
After taking off much of the summer, Congress at least averted a disastrous shutdown last week before leaving Washington until mid-November. That challenging homecoming will also include two unpredictable Republican leadership battles in the Capitol; GOP senators will have to select a new leader, and the House GOP will grapple with Speaker Mike Johnson’s future.
Until then, Congress can do little but brace for Election Day. And in the back of many members’ and aides’ minds is the prospect of another challenge to the results from Trump supporters.
The tone of the lame duck session all “kind of depends if we’re in a constitutional crisis or not,” said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn.
“It feels very hard to predict anything about the world until you see the result of the election,” Murphy said. “There could be a rush to get some things done. We could also have an armed MAGA militia descending on the Capitol.”
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Provided that Congress certifies the election results on Jan. 6, Trump or Harris will take office with the burden of getting a Cabinet confirmed while avoiding a financial meltdown over the debt limit. Add a possible second government funding bill to that list — if a bigger spending deal isn’t reached this year.
The Dec. 20 spending deadline is designed to prompt a year-end deal among congressional leaders in both parties. But any agreement they strike would be the sort of mega-bill that conservatives now rebel against as a rule.
A spending accord like that could get passed in December despite that angst, according to interviews with lawmakers in both parties, and some aides are optimistic. There’s no guarantee of finding a middle ground that can survive doubters on the right and left, though, and even a successful catch-all spending plan would cause plenty of headaches right up until Christmas.
One of the biggest hurdles facing Congress’ spending talks is the presidential race. If Harris wins, the GOP would have little appetite to clear the decks for her presidency. If Trump wins, Democrats may have to reassess whether to make life easier or tougher for him. And Republicans may be loath to undercut him after his past opposition to big year-end government funding deals.
“My feeling is that, regardless of who wins, we need to allow the new president to offer input, and we need to slow down,” said Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., who added that he’s “adamantly opposed” to a leadership-crafted deal “rammed down everybody’s throat.”
Politics and the calendar are also standing in the way of the annual defense policy bill, which is basically the only thing Congress does on time every year. Capitol Hill is expecting a hectic dash to get that done due to lack of negotiations this month, said Senate Armed Services Chair Jack Reed, D-R.I.
Last but not least on the list is the debt ceiling, which may not approach default until later in 2025 because of “extraordinary measures” that the Treasury Department can take. Avoiding a debt breach often requires a months-long, bipartisan push from leaders as lawmakers try to use the issue as leverage to extract concessions from the president in power.
“I’m always concerned about the debt ceiling,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo.
Burgess’s view
It’s hard to predict a constitutional crisis, but I’m preparing for a very bumpy post-election ride. Some Hill denizens chided me for being too negative when I shared this view, but I don’t see any lame ducks looking orderly in the Trump era (even if he loses, we’ll still be in it for a bit).
History bears out my pessimism: Anti-Trump energy that coursed through the Democratic Party in late 2016 inspired Schumer and coal state Democrats to drive tough talks over coal miners’ benefits that nearly invited a shutdown.
That was mild compared with what happened four years later, mid-pandemic. Trump threatened to not sign a spending bill that winter and outright vetoed the defense policy bill. The Senate had to hold a rare New Year’s Day session to override him.
On top of it all, the frenetic rush to hear out false claims of election fraud resulted in a violent Capitol riot by Trump supporters right after the lame duck.
Looking ahead to next year, there are so many unknowns and important tasks that it’s going to be hard to keep Congress on the rails.
As anxious as the election makes many Americans, the agita will start early on Capitol Hill. Mark down Nov. 12, the day that legislating is currently scheduled to resume.