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Democrats hope that President Barack Obama’s purple state magic could make the difference for them this fall, up and down the ballot.
The former president has cut ads in three contested Senate races, in Maryland, Michigan, and Florida — one state he won by landslides and two he never lost. He plans to begin a nationwide tour next week in Pennsylvania, home of a fourth tight Senate race, and he will do more fundraising for Democrats and cut more ads and robocalls for downballot races.
Obama’s early messaging elevates what lesser-known Democratic candidates have said all year, like a Maryland spot warning that ex-Gov. Larry Hogan could lock in a GOP majority if he defeats Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland. And all of it demonstrates the popularity of Obama in swing states a dozen years after he last ran.
“It’s great!” said New Jersey Sen. George Helmy. “A widely popular president carries a lot of weight in a number of different sectors of Democratic Party. And I think it’s great that the president is jumping in.”
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The Democratic coalition has changed dramatically since Obama last appeared on a ballot. Some working class voters who supported him twice were already drifting away when he left office, helping build a GOP landslide in 2014 House and Senate races, and a narrow Trump win in 2016.
Democrats’ previous Senate majority was built around states like North Dakota, Iowa and Missouri, all of which have all-GOP Senate delegations now. The current Democratic majority now is undergirded by seats in Georgia and Arizona, states Obama lost handily and that turned Democrats’ way in the Trump era.
But like most former presidents — including the current GOP nominee — Obama grew more popular after leaving office. A YouGov poll this week found 57% of Americans viewing Obama favorably, and 53% saying they’d vote for him if he was a nominee for president this year, identical to the share of the vote he won in 2008.
“Former President Obama is a powerful and effective voice who will help illustrate the importance of this election and mobilize the voters we need to win in key Senate races,” said David Bergstein, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
The DSCC is working closely with Obama, who has also met with many of the Democratic incumbents and candidates this cycle. His backing of former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida will help introduce her to voters in a tough state for Democrats, and Obama could even be helpful to Democrats like Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), whose state has gone red after Obama won it twice.
The View From Republicans
“A Democrat president endorsed a bunch of Democrats,” deadpanned NRSC spokesperson Mike Berg. “It is truly shocking.”
BURGESS AND DAVID’S VIEW
A lot of Democratic Senate candidates in battlegrounds are seeing their polls tighten closer to the presidential race, where Harris’ standing in places like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are well below Obama’s 2008 and 2012 final margins. If Obama can help pull Democrats ahead even by a small margin it could make a huge difference both up and down the ballot.
Obama’s popularity in 2012 was jet fuel for Senate Democrats, who ended up picking up seats in places like Indiana and Massachusetts and holding them in Missouri, Montana and North Dakota. The map has changed a lot since then, but it’s hard to see how an engaged ex-president who still has kingmaker status in the party hurts Harris or the battle for the Senate majorities.
Notable
Obama held a fundraiser for Democratic candidates this spring, a sign that he would get more involved downballot.
Sen. Jon Tester says his vote for president is “between me and the ballot box,” according to CNN. Tester won reelection in 2012 sharing a ticket with Obama.