The News
A new report from a nonpartisan budget watchdog found that both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s economic plans would add to the US’ debt. But Trump would increase the deficit — how much federal spending exceeds revenue — by more than twice as much as Harris would.
Harris’ agenda would likely add $3.5 trillion over 10 years, while Trump’s plan would pile on $7.5 trillion, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found.
The report is the latest in a string of budget analyses, which, taken together, suggest that both candidates’ plans will likely add to the deficit, but Harris may be a better steward of the national budget.
SIGNALS
Wharton study: Top 5% worse off with Harris
September’s Penn Wharton Budget Model found that Trump’s plan is “pretty clear, but expensive,” while “Harris is definitely a lot cheaper, but it’s a little bit cagey in terms of exactly what she’s proposing,” a Wharton professor told Marketplace at the time. Almost all US taxpayers would be “basically either neutral or better-off” under Harris’ proposals, although “the top 5% are going to be a bit worse off,” he said. By contrast, liberal think tank Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found Trump’s plans would lead to higher taxes for every income group — except the top 5%.
Trump’s plans more likely to come to fruition if he wins White House
The Budget Lab at Yale and Harvard University professor Jason Furman reached a similar conclusion: Trump’s “ideas on tariffs, the budget and the Federal Reserve pose a much greater risk to the economy than Ms. Harris’s,” Furman, a top Obama administration economist, wrote in The Wall Street Journal. Furman noted that — if Trump wins the White House — the Republican’s plans may be more likely to come to fruition than if Harris wins, because Republicans are also more likely to win the House and Senate in that case. A Democrat trifecta is seen as far less likely.
Budget hawks are stressed regardless
The US economy is estimated at about $29 trillion, whereas its debt burden is $35 trillion — and while the country isn’t in a financial crisis, rising debt creates higher risk. Given that both candidates are forecast to add to the deficit, fiscal hawks are pushing both candidates to halt the rise before it gets out of hand. “The next president is going to have to level with the American people about the need to stop borrowing so much, and pandering on everything from taxes to Social Security is not a good start,” Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president Maya MacGuineas told Semafor.