Anti-trans ads didn’t work in 2022. Republicans think this time will be different.

Last week, the Trump campaign put out another ad on the topic; at the same time, the Senate Leadership Fund backed by Mitch McConnell started running swing seat ads that went after Democrats for the implications of the Equality Act, which would prohibit discrimination based on gender identity rather than some other definition of sex, and their opposition to the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, which would prevent student athletes from playing on a team that doesn’t match their sex at birth.

Voters in Wisconsin, Ohio, and Montana soon heard that Sen. Tammy Baldwin wanted “women’s shelters to accept biological men,” Sen. Sherrod Brown would “allow children to receive sex change surgery,” and Sen. Jon Tester would “let men use women’s bathrooms.” According to a New York Times analysis, at least $65 million has been spent on these ads. There are no real-world examples in the ads; the claim of Brown supporting gender surgery for minors, which is illegal in Ohio, was based on an interview where he opposed Republican bans on various treatments for transgender youth.

“They’re not true, and they don’t represent my position,” Allred said in an interview with Semafor, when asked about trans-focused ads from the Cruz campaign and the pro-Cruz Truth and Courage PAC. “I’m a dad, and I just believe the folks shouldn’t be discriminated against.”

Social conservatives, who have run their own ads on these issues for years and urged the GOP to catch up, feel some vindication. Trump, who had rolled back some transgender rights as president, rarely talked about the topic in his 2020 campaign. In 2016, he even encouraged Caitlyn Jenner, who is transgender, to use any bathroom she wanted at Trump properties. He has talked about the topic frequently in 2024, joking with rally crowds about women getting “wind burns” when they race against trans women, telling members of Moms for Liberty last month that children were receiving transgender-related surgery at school — a wildly false claim.

“The big mountain that we wanted to conquer was that the culture war is a loser,” said Terry Schilling, the president of the American Principles Project, which ran its first ad showing a boy defeating girls in a track race five years ago, in Kentucky. “It used to be that you would just get shouted down if you said anything critical of the trans movement, and now no one cares.”

One development that helped: “Elon [Musk] bought Twitter, and now we can actually communicate with the political class and their communications teams about how to run campaign ads.”

In their own research, Republicans see the ads moving votes. On the air, they do not see Democrats rebutting them, or explaining why they supported pro-LGBTQ legislation, as rapidly as they respond to ads calling them soft on crime or supportive of open borders. Democrats have defended their votes, and accused the GOP of misinformation.

“Republican attacks twisting the Equality Act for political purposes in this race are as gross as they are unsurprising,” said Baldwin campaign spokesman Andrew Mamo. “The Equality Act is a proposal that bans discrimination in employment and housing.”

Advocacy groups argue Democrats can confidently hold their ground without fear of an electoral backlash — and that voters will penalize politicians for appearing broadly intolerant, even if they might agree with them on an individual issue in a poll.

“MAGA bullies like to paint transgender people in scary and unrealistic ways, in part because they hope that most Americans don’t know a trans person enough to be able to spot the misinformation,” said Brandon Wolf, the national press secretary of the Human Rights Campaign. “Anti-trans attacks like this don’t work. They haven’t worked in the past. They’re not working in this election cycle.”

Last week, Wolf pulled together polling and election results for an HRC memo, finding that voters rejected candidates who “peddle transphobia and try to control their personal health care decisions.” Any Democrat being attacked for supporting the Equality Act or trans rights, he said, should “know that you’re on the right side of history and that you are where the American people are.”

In Texas, where Democrats are making a late investment for Allred, the candidate has not budged. Last week, both Allred and Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego signed a letter to leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees to strip out Republican additions to the National Defense Authorization Act, which prevented any funding from paying for gender surgeries, drag shows, or the flying of LGBTQ pride flags.

“I just don’t think that we should be telling our military commanders how to run their units,” Allred explained. “What we do with the NDAA is try and provide them with the tools they need to protect our country. Having these riders just distracts from that goal.”

Cruz saw it another way. At campaign stops on Monday and Tuesday, he described Allred’s signature on the letter, to gasps from the Republican crowd.

“[He said] we need to ensure that all military bases can have drag shows,” said Cruz. “We need the taxpayers to pay for sex change surgeries for active duty military. And we need taxpayers to pay for sterilization of minors. He also said, we need to have the transgender flag fly above our military bases.”Some in the crowd booed; one man yelled “Jesus!” and shook his head.“Listen, he can have whatever radical agenda he wants,” said Cruz. “But let me tell you something right now: There is one flag that should fly over a military base, and that is the flag of the United States of America!”

Why would this issue break through in 2024, when it didn’t in the last four elections? I’m pretty persuaded by the idea that Musk — who, remember, was moved to buy Twitter because it punished The Babylon Bee for a trans joke — has opened up more space. But the prime actor is Trump, who has worked this into his speeches for years, and who makes other Republicans confident that an idea is working.

After the Allen event, Cruz admonished a reporter who asked him about abortion by listing the election’s top three issues: The economy, the border, and crime. Where, I asked, did trans rights fit in, and who did he think he was reaching? On his podcast, he had just interviewed state Rep. Shawn Thierry, a Democrat who quit her party after she voted with Republicans on trans legislation, and progressives spent money to oust her in her primary.

“The issue that drove her over the edge was the extremism on wanting to sterilize children and engage in sex transitioning for 9, 10, 11 year-old kids,” said Cruz, referring to puberty blockers that are largely reversible but that can potentially impact fertility. “She was horrified at her party pushing that agenda. It’s an example, frankly, of how today’s Democrats are out of the mainstream.”

Republicans believe Democrats have adopted new thinking on gender that will harm people; they don’t believe advocates who say that trans people, including children, are harmed by laws that restrict access to gender medicine, or set in stone a definition of sex. And they think voters are more supportive of traditional gender roles than they might admit in public. In essence, they’re betting millions of dollars and scarce news cycles that it’s a rare issue that might move even a small slice of cross-pressured voters who could be decisive. They celebrated when Charlamagne Tha God, the popular radio host, suggested the Trump ads on transgender prisoners that aired during a football game came off as effective.

At the Allen rally, Cruz joked about how Gov. Tim Walz called himself a “knucklehead” in his debate last week, then made fun of the way he waved to crowds, which some in the Trump campaign had called “effeminate.”

“What is that?” Cruz asked, rhetorically. “I’m telling you right now: In Texas, if you wave like that, you’ll get your ass kicked.”

Many Democrats believe Republicans are still overestimating the appeal of anti-trans politics. In the New York Times, Shane Goldmacher has more details on the surge in anti-trans ads, and polling on why they doubt it will work: “A majority of Americans believe society should accept transgender people for the gender they identify with, including in five presidential battleground states surveyed by The New York Times and Siena College: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin.”