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BINGHAMTON, NEW YORK — When vulnerable Republican congressman Marc Molinaro convened local unions for a rally on Monday, several pro-Kamala Harris groups showed up.
But other labor supporters of Molinaro made their views on the presidential race very clear.
Asked if he would split his ticket between the battleground-seat GOP lawmaker and the Democratic nominee, one union member quipped: “No. I’m not a communist.”
Harris is neck and neck with Donald Trump nationwide, yet polls show the vice president lagging behind Biden’s 2020 performance in this blue state. Those lackluster numbers could prove problematic for Democrats trying to take back the House, since most in the party believe a strong showing in Empire State battleground districts could decide the balance of power in the chamber next year.
The peril for Democrats in New York emerged clearly in recent polling by Siena College, which found that Harris got a 5-point boost after replacing Biden atop the ticket but hadn’t reached his 22-point winning margin of four years earlier. Harris will have no trouble winning New York’s 28 electoral votes next month, but Democrats are hoping for big coattails to pull their House candidates to victory in swing races.
Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg put it succinctly: “Generically, the fact that the top of the ticket is not doing as well at the moment as the top of the ticket did four years ago potentially makes the job of Democrats in marginal swing seats more difficult,” he said.
That has Republicans feeling optimistic about hanging onto the state’s nearly half-dozen most competitive seats. New York Rep. Elise Stefanik said every district they poll shows underperformance at the top of the ticket.
“Kamala Harris is polling worse than where Joe Biden was in 2020. So we think this is a real opportunity, not only to hold those seats but to pick up additional seats,” said Stefanik, a member of GOP leadership.
Stefanik has poured about $6 million into her state’s swing districts through her New York Battleground Fund and other fundraising arms of the GOP, according to a source familiar with the spending. And Democrats are girding for the fight, with 37 field offices throughout seven competitive districts compared to what Republicans call an “unprecedented” five offices.
Even as they stay optimistic, some Democrats aren’t ready to predict that Harris is poised to lift all of their candidates in the state.
Rep. Greg Meeks, who chairs the Queens Democratic Party in New York, told Semafor that “clearly, Harris is not underwater in” Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito’s Long Island district. And he contended that she “is also helping” in Rep. Nick LaLota’s Long Island district, despite GOP polls showing the incumbent ahead.
In Molinaro’s district, Meeks added, “Harris is doing fine.” As for the Westchester district where Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is trying to fend off a challenge from former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones: “I think there’s something unique about New York 17.”
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The GOP’s current narrow majority stems from a 2022 midterm election that didn’t yield a Republican wave nationwide but did deliver surprising victories in some of the state’s suburban and rural districts by focusing on crime and inflation; this year, they’re looking to the same themes along with immigration in their bids to hang on.
Molinaro, Lawler and D’Esposito are seen as the most imperiled first-term Republican incumbents in the state. Democrats think they can unseat LaLota on tougher terrain; they’re even more confident in Rep. Tom Suozzi, who relied on a centrist immigration message to win a special election earlier this year to replace expelled George Santos.
But even in Suozzi’s relatively safe district, there are warning signs for Democrats. According to two sources familiar with internal polling, Suozzi is leading his Republican opponent by just 5 points in a district that Biden won by 10 points in 2020.
Harris is trailing both Biden’s 2020 numbers and Suozzi’s current numbers in the district, according to those two sources.
Suozzi’s New York Democratic colleague Rep. Grace Meng told Semafor that she sees Suozzi outpacing Harris: “I expect him to always outperform the top of the ticket.”
Still, less well-known Democrats like Molinaro rival Josh Riley can’t lean on their name recognition in their districts to power through. Riley says he doesn’t worry about that.
“What’s happening at the top of the ticket, what’s happening below us on the ticket — doesn’t really matter when the choice between the two candidates who are actually on the ballot is as clear as it is here,” Riley told Semafor during an interview in a cafe in his upstate hometown of Endicott after addressing a crowd of around 40 people.
Riley will also have to make up margins with union members who have decided to split their tickets between Molinaro and Harris.
Alan Marzullo, the business manager of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 43, said his chapter is 60% Democratic despite its members showing up for Molinaro. It wasn’t hard convincing Democratic members to back Harris, he added, since union leaders have worked to convey how closely Harris worked with Biden on labor.
“She just hasn’t had as much time” due to her late ascension, Marzullo said.
Todd Diorio, president of the pro-Molinaro Hudson Valley Building & Construction Trades Council, sounded a similar note when asked about his members splitting their tickets to back Harris and vice presidential nominee Tim Walz.
“More and more people are starting to lean towards Harris and Walz just because, as the guys get closer to Election Day, they are starting to get more educated,” he said. “Donald Trump talked about … infrastructure spending, but never actually spent any money.”
As for Harris’ overall standing in the state, Diorio said: “She’ll be fine. I hope.”
Kadia’s view
Harris’ White House chances aren’t hurt by her inability to reach Biden’s 2020 numbers in New York — and it’s important to remember that Biden left her in a poor position by losing ground with voters in the state before he dropped out, per Siena’s numbers.
But it also doesn’t look like she’s bringing over enough independents or disaffected conservatives to boost down-ballot Democrats. Which leaves an unmistakable window for Republicans to hang onto their battleground New York seats, and the House majority.
Notably, New York’s first-term Republican congressmen are used to rising and falling together. They came to Congress with similar backgrounds and became a remarkably unified bloc, pushing their party on everything from tax to abortion policy before bonding even more over their push to expel Santos.
In the end, the swing-seat Republican brotherhood in New York could make it that much tougher for Democrats to oust them. One recent sign of it: After a New York Times report that D’Esposito had put both his romantic partner and a separate fiancée’s daughter on his office payroll, no New York Republican had a critical word to say.
Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly identified Riley’s hometown of Endicott.