The Scoop
The top Senate GOP super PAC is pouring $6.6 million into Wisconsin’s Senate race, clear proof that Republicans are trying to expand their once-narrow campaign map less than a month before Election Day.
The Senate Leadership Fund shared its new spending first with Semafor; the super PAC aligned with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is now on track to spend $23.6 million overall on ousting Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). It’s a striking sum given that, up until a few months ago, Republicans saw Baldwin as relatively safe against their challenger, businessman Eric Hovde.
What’s changed since then? The tightening presidential race in Wisconsin, which has Republicans thinking Baldwin could lose if Donald Trump can pull off a win in the state. Baldwin’s home-state Republican colleague, Sen. Ron Johnson, has also been asking for outside help to defeat her.
“We’re finding that a lot of Wisconsin voters had no idea how far-left Tammy Baldwin has drifted after almost 30 years in Congress. Our messages are resonating at the same time that Eric Hovde is consolidating his vote,” said Steven Law, president of the super PAC.
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Democrats’ 51-49 Senate majority is at serious risk next month. The party is certain to lose a seat in West Virginia, Republican Tim Sheehy is leading Sen. Jon Tester in Montana and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is facing a stiff challenge in Ohio.
Wisconsin is in the second tier of Senate races this fall, along with Pennsylvania and Michigan. Republican wins there would mean a red wave that sweeps the chamber to a hefty majority for Trump’s party. Still, Democrats are generally leading the polls in all of those Senate races, and Republican challengers are generally lagging behind Trump.
The McConnell-linked super PAC is now spending tens of millions of dollars across five races: Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The lack of activity so far in Nevada and Arizona reflects the steeper climbs for GOP candidates against Sen. Jacky Rosen and Rep. Ruben Gallego, respectively.
Senate Majority PAC, the largest Democratic outside group, purchased a new tranche of ads this week in all seven of this fall’s biggest battlegrounds, plus Maryland. Though the Senate Democratic campaign arm is investing in defeating both Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Rick Scott, neither party’s big super PAC has gotten involved.
Florida and Texas are Democrats’ best pick-up opportunities for Senate seats despite being red states.