The Scene
Late last month, Harvard’s Institute of Politics released its Youth Poll — the 48th survey of 18 to 29-year-old voters, and the first to test Kamala Harris against Donald Trump.
The result was spectacular for the Democratic nominee, a 31-point lead when minor candidates were included. It was a dramatic example of how the vice president had fixed some of the Democratic problems left behind by Joe Biden.
It was also not a clear indicator that she was the favorite in the race. John Della Volpe, the IOP’s polling director and a former advisor to Biden’s 2020 campaign, talked with Americana about what was happening behind the numbers.
Q&A
Americana: What exactly do you see happening with young voters, based on this data?
John Della Volpe: A couple of things. I think that many folks underestimated the degree to which younger people were looking for political leaders they could connect with. There’s not a lot of daylight in the policy between Harris and Biden, but there’s just a tremendous amount of confidence in Vice President Harris that you can feel from this data. There’s a genuine enthusiasm for voting among Democrats now. And I’ve said, for a decade, that for a Democrat to have a strong chance of winning the Electoral College, you need to be at 60% plus with younger people. It’s going to make the pathway much, much easier. And she’s in the ballpark. She needs to stay there and build.
Americana: How do you explain the gender gap shift?
Della Volpe: I’ve published plenty of material that shows the degree to which African Americans, Hispanics and men have been moving away from the Democratic Party towards independents and some Republicans over the last four or five years. It used to be a 22-point advantage or something among young men, and now it’s four or five. They are disassociating with the Democratic Party.
But the values of these younger men don’t necessarily seem misaligned with the values of the younger men of five years ago on many issues. Is it driven by policy, or is it driven by persona? I think it’s persona, both Trump’s and Biden’s. Vice President Harris is moving in the right direction in our last poll with men, she’s leading with young men under 30, but she’s not where Biden was in 2020. Women are more passionate about her than men are right now. But she has enough support to get to 60% in most battleground states.
Americana: Your poll was one of many that showed Harris’ favorable rating spiking after she became the nominee, something we didn’t really have precedent for. So what was happening?
Della Volpe: I’ll tell you why it doesn’t surprise me. One, I think a lot of the views earlier this year were formed during the 2020 campaign. Obviously, not successful. But a year ago, she launched a college tour. I watched that fairly closely, and that’s the reason I’m not surprised at this. The response was pretty incredible. Watching that tour, I became more confident in her political skills, especially with younger people and the African-American community, than others who were not paying as close attention.
The second thing is, while men were more open to voting for Trump, their values by and large did not change dramatically over the last several years. Many still cared about investing in climate and curtailing gun violence and using government to protect the vulnerable. Those values haven’t changed. What had changed is that this younger cohort of mostly first-time voters had a different experience with Trump than the previous younger cohorts. They viewed him as a personality, as an antihero, and not the sitting president. He wasn’t the president anymore. And a lot of their views were based on the contrast of Trump versus Biden. There wasn’t a lot of love for Trump, but there wasn’t confidence in Biden’s ability to execute his vision.
So while “brat summer” was the first step for Harris to introduce herself in a way that extended well beyond the political, algorithmic bubbles that people spend time in — young people started to pay attention. Can she go toe-to-toe with a former president? Can she be a credible commander in chief? Check, check. In our polling she’s viewed as stronger, more competent, and more in touch than Trump. And that’s meaningful. My personal advice would be to further connect with youth, she should seriously address the mental health crisis of younger people and make this a priority. Basically half of young voters are struggling in a significant way with anxiety, depression, hopelessness, and worse. There are millions of younger people who are concerned about just keeping the lights on and a roof over their head. The number of homeless people that I encounter in my focus groups is ridiculous. There’s a strong correlation between the state of politics, public policy and mental health today.
Americana: So how does Harris’ position now compare to the Democrats who’ve won and lost?
Della Volpe: It best compares to Obama 2012 and Biden 2020. Obama won 66% of the under-30 vote in 2008. He won 60% in 2012, and Biden got 60% in 2020. The feel of this campaign is a mash-up of 2008 and 2018. It’s the hopefulness and the energy of Obama’s first run, and it’s the focus, organization and determination of 2018 when young people got serious. People got organized after Parkland. That’s the year Joe Crowley lost his primary to AOC, for example.
One difference is that Trump is doing somewhat better with men than he did four years ago. He’s been introducing himself to a new group of voters for the first time. That is paying off to some degree. Today’s 20 year olds were 11 when he came down the escalator. They were 12 or 13 when he appointed Steve Bannon to the NSC, when he pulled out of the Paris accords, when he tried to end the ACA. These kids didn’t see him as a villain. They saw him as an anti-hero. They saw him standing up to authority. They tell me they thought it was funny.
Then they enter high school with COVID. They’re discovering Joe Rogan, Theo Von, and conspiracy theories about the government. The only sport they could watch for an extended period of time was UFC and Dana White. And when Biden becomes president, post-COVID, the cost of living spikes and it’s really expensive to do the simple things young people want to do. Many young people connect the feelings of being five years old during the Great Recession and worried about whether their parents would stay in their house to fear of inflation and potential recession today; that’s where a Trump-curious young voter is coming from.