Why Trump’s opponents aren’t dropping out

Donald Trump and Joe Biden seem to be increasingly focused on the general election, with allies on both sides viewing a rematch as near-inevitable. State and national polling shows Trump with a massive, growing lead in primaries while his opponents carve up a smaller share of votes. And anti-Trump Republican groups are finding in polls and focus groups that a long list of attacks against the frontrunner just aren’t landing — in some cases, they even increase his support — prompting some to give up.

Add it all up and you might ask why Trump’s opponents even bother staying in the race.

So we asked them: In conversations with candidates, campaign officials, and outside backers, non-Trump Republicans described a few shreds of hope that are keeping them going for now.

For one, campaigns still see another phase to the race, one in which a single candidate consolidates support and starts looking like a final rival to Trump and forces voters to pay more attention. Mitt Romney, who has expressed skepticism that Trump can be defeated, urged donors and campaigns at a retreat this week to winnow the field as fast as possible to preserve whatever chance of avoiding a “train wreck” remains.

Nikki Haley’s team cited her rise towards second place in some polls as crucial momentum, and noted that one of the earliest dropouts in the race (Will Hurd) had endorsed her. A Haley advisor also argued that she’s running “a unique campaign that carves out a lane unlike any other candidate” — and that some surveys show her outperforming the field against Biden, including a Fox News poll just this week.

For Ron DeSantis’ team, it’s all about Iowa: His campaign believes Trump is in trouble in the key early state, despite his strong recent polling, and that their operations and new ad blitz there will prove to be the key as voters make up their mind closer to the actual caucus date. In recent weeks, DeSantis has also upped his attacks against Trump on a variety of topics, including decrying his recent criticism of Israel’s government after the terrorist rampage by Hamas. The campaign has argued that the direct approach, which comes after months of more circumspect criticism from both him and other candidates, might yield dividends with voters.

Chris Christie, meanwhile, is all in on New Hampshire, where an advisor told Semafor that he sees a pool of independent and non-affiliated voters who could help counter Trump’s hold on the Republican base. One national PAC is working to convince Democrats to cross over just for the primary in order to oppose Trump, which could provide an additional source of votes. It doesn’t hurt that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. just abandoned his challenge to Biden to run as an independent instead.

“When you don’t have a competitive Democratic presidential primary, especially this year, you could see a lot of independent voters really eager to participate and to get out there vote, and there’s only one show in town when it comes to that, right?” the Christie advisor said.

And then there’s Mike Pence and Tim Scott: Advisors for both campaigns argued that their candidates are the most conservative on the issues — something that, in theory at least, should help them in a match up against Trump, who historically has been all over the map with his political beliefs. Both candidates also bring their own set of experiences to the table: Pence, as a former vice president, and Scott, who an advisor described as the most likable candidate in the race. As a senator, he’s also currently trying to highlight his role as the lone candidate in a position to help enact policies in response to the recent war in Israel.

There’s also the ever-present hope that Trump will eventually “collapse under his own weight,” as the cliché goes, even as his many indictments, trials, and lawsuits have so far only rallied Republicans to his defense.

“I’m not sure there’s ever been somebody that far in front who’s had as many hurdles in front of them that Donald Trump has,” Pence advisor Marc Short told Semafor after the second Republican debate.

And finally, there’s always room for a little blind faith. Campaigns are holding out for the possibility that some major event changes the race — perhaps one none of them can predict — and they want to be in the best position possible to capitalize should it arrive.

“Control the controllables,” Kathy Barnette, Vivek Ramaswamy’s grassroots director, told Semafor after the last debate. “What can we control? Be very clear, very sustained.”