The Scene
STEUBENVILLE, Ohio – Sherrod Brown is the rare member of Congress whose political brand is distinctive enough to come with bling. As unassuming as he tries to be, he doesn’t mind showing it off.
“I wear this canary pin that stands for workers and worker safety,” Brown told Semafor after a morning of railing against Chinese autos with union members, followed by an afternoon event on fentanyl abuse.
“When you come to the Senate, they give you a really fancy piece of jewelry,” the 71-year-old added, referring to the lapel pins worn by most senators. “I wore it for about three days, kind of strutting around.”
Brown then returned to his signature canary lapel pin, he said, because the official alternative “didn’t fit my psyche.” Now after more than 30 years in Congress, voters will render a decisive verdict on whether that canary pin still fits in the staid Senate.
The gravelly-voiced senator has built an identity blending pro-labor populism with targeted bipartisanship that makes him a known and unique commodity to voters in this now-red state. That reputation is the only reason why he’s still competitive in the toughest Senate race of his career — and the country’s most expensive.
He’s facing a Republican opponent, Bernie Moreno, who counts Donald Trump’s running mate as a friend and brings a rhetorical style at least as pugnacious as Brown’s. The Democrat is hoping that what Ohioans know about him outweighs their growing inclination to vote party line.
Moreno is betting that Brown’s brand can be turned against him.
“He wears the canary in a coal mine pin,” the Republican told Semafor. “The canary is warning people about him.”
Brown is running way ahead of Kamala Harris statewide, drawing a small but significant chunk of Trump voters. Of course, Harris isn’t really competing here; Ohio last looked purple in 2012, when both Brown and former President Barack Obama won re-election. (Obama still casts a long shadow: He cut an ad for Brown’s race this year, according to a person familiar with the matter.)
So Brown is left to his own approach, and it was on full display during a fall sweep down the state’s eastern edge. On the banks of the Ohio River in Steubenville, an independent sheriff and Republican mayor praised his work with a top Republican on an anti-fentanyl law. Over in labor-minded Lordstown, Brown told UAW workers he wants to ban imported Chinese electric vehicles.
On abortion, he’s true to his progressive roots: He’s running ads that ding Moreno for criticizing single-issue abortion-rights voters.
“A worker here that might be a little more conservative, thinks I’m on their side? It’s because I am. The women that have been out there on [Ohio’s abortion referendum] think I’m on their side, and I am,” Brown explained. “It’s not a finger to the wind thing.”
Moreno, a Colombian immigrant and successful car dealer, scoffed at his opponent’s claim to authenticity.
“He’s a faux populist,” Moreno said. “When he flies to Ohio, he puts on the wrinkled suit, uses his wife’s blow dryer to mess up his hair and pretends he’s a regular American. He’s not.”
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Moreno acknowledges Brown’s positive media coverage and universal name ID are keeping the race close. Other Republicans see the metrics of the state and the presidential race as too much for Brown to overcome, whatever his talents.
“My jaw would absolutely hit the floor in a very real way if Sherrod Brown wins this race,” said Jai Chabria, the chief strategist for now-vice presidential nominee JD Vance’s 2022 Senate run.
Steven Law, who runs the Republican super PAC Senate Leadership Fund, was slightly less confident: “I would rate it as at least lean Republican.”
Much of that stems from the changes in Ohio during Brown’s 18 years in the Senate. Consider this: Brown defeated a GOP incumbent in 2006 who is now the state’s popular governor. Mike DeWine went from losing that Senate race by 12 points to winning his 2022 gubernatorial race by 25 points.
Brown managed to win in 2018 alongside DeWine, showing he can win over ticket-splitters. Presidential races are different: Former Rep. Tim Ryan, who ran against Vance in 2022, told Semafor that Harris needs to get within 5 or 6 points of Trump to feel good about Brown’s chances. President Joe Biden lost Ohio by 8 points.
“It’s a coin toss. I think things are kind of cutting [Brown’s] way a little bit,” said Ryan, who lost to Vance by 6 points but forced Republicans to burn money defending the seat.
Brown barely mentions Trump as he travels the state and doesn’t talk much about Harris, despite having endorsed her. He says he hasn’t talked to her recently but got along well with her in the Senate and likes how she talks about the “dignity of work” — a term that’s a staple in Brown’s political dictionary.
“I focus on my race and what I can do, and all these things I’ve worked on. Whether Trump was president, whether Obama was, whether Bush was or whether Biden is,” Brown said.
The polls usually show him with a slim lead, but Vance’s convincing win emerged late two years ago. Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., who runs the party’s campaign arm, said Brown’s position is “actually a little better than where we thought we’d be at this point in the race.”
Still, Brown’s supporters fear the worst. Dave Green, a UAW union leader who’s known Brown for years, said he was “dumbfounded” that voters might elect Moreno given he has no elected experience.
Moreno certainly isn’t playing it safe. In a telephone interview, he attacked Brown at a mile-a-minute pace, calling him the “grim reaper of manufacturing” and claiming blue-collar workers “probably beat up” Brown in high school. Brown campaign spokesperson Reeves Oyster responded that “Bernie Moreno will say anything to distract from his record” on the trail and in business.
Burgess’s view
Ohio’s is the most interesting Senate race in America, full stop.
It’s one of the last states with a Senate pair split by party, and Brown is now one of the last red-state Democratic senators — a double-digit group just a decade ago. Given Brown’s skill drawing ticket-splitters, it’s also one of the only races defying normal battleground logic.
That means Republicans can win it even if Trump loses the presidency, and Brown doesn’t worry too much about Harris.
It would be stupid for me to predict a winner given the tight polls and changing nature of the state’s politics. And though Moreno says Brown feigns his rumpled look for home-state clout, I can confirm the incumbent looked equally disheveled in Ohio as he does when I talk to him in Washington.