The Scene
One of the US’ most important elections for climate policy this year is in the suburban foothills of Tucson, Arizona.
The state lags behind its peers on clean energy jobs and also faces escalating challenges from heat waves and water shortages, which one Democratic state senate candidate told Semafor is the fault of “some level of inattention, some level of incompetence, and some level of malfeasance” by the longstanding Republican leadership in the legislature. His campaign is drawing support from climate activists who see an opportunity to unlock a raft of policy goals related to clean energy and environmental conservation — not just for the benefit of Arizonans, but as a backstop for broader US climate goals in the event Republicans sweep national races this November.
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Tim’s view
With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump neck-and-neck for the White House, and a good chance that Republicans could win both houses of Congress, local races like District 17 of Arizona’s state senate are an increasingly important venue for the future of US climate policy. State lawmakers wield considerable influence over how states set clean energy targets and whether they seek to access federal funding for climate initiatives. But climate activist groups have historically underinvested in supporting pro-climate candidates in local races — limited financial and human resources have usually been seen as better invested in high-profile national races. That’s starting to change as the collective stakes of local races become more clear, said Caroline Spears, executive director of the advocacy group Climate Cabinet, which supports local candidates.
In Arizona, a Democrat-controlled legislature would likely focus on overturning Republican policies designed to slow the energy transition, including a law prohibiting restrictions on the use of natural gas in buildings.
And much of the attention is focused on District 17, where a tight race is underway between Vince Leach, a Republican who served in the legislature from 2015 until losing a primary race in 2022 and is now fighting to get back in, and John McLean, a Democrat new to politics who worked most of his career in defense engineering. The district is mostly white and upper middle class, and has been gerrymandered to favor Republican candidates, who have represented it for years. But one-third of voters there are registered as independents, and the primary loss this year of the far-right, Trump-boosting incumbent Justine Wadsack suggests some moderate District 17 voters may be losing patience with the current direction of the GOP, putting the district in play as one of just four tightly-contested seats needed to flip majority control of the state legislature to Democrats for the first time since the 1960s.
Arizona isn’t the only state where climate policy hinges on a small number of key local races this year. Minnesota Democrats are within a few seats of losing the margin that allowed them to pass, under Gov. Tim Walz, a law to move the state to 100% carbon-free electricity by 2040. Control of the state legislatures of Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania are also up for grabs. North Carolina is facing a gubernatorial election in which the candidates are sharply divided on climate issues. Arizona and Montana will also elect new members for the agencies that regulate electric utilities, with important implications for the rollout of renewables. Washington state will vote on whether to repeal its ambitious cap-and-trade law.
Room for Disagreement
A major challenge facing campaign groups like Climate Cabinet is that climate change is rarely a priority for voters in local races. McLean said the issue barely comes up when he’s out knocking on doors. But he’s found ways to broach it indirectly. People in District 17 are typically sensitive about water shortages — many have seen their homes lose value as a result of groundwater deficits, and groundwater regulation is one of McLean’s top legislative priorities. Voters are also concerned about energy costs, and open to nuanced conversations about the financial benefits of solar.
So far it’s not clear whether McLean’s strategy will work. Polling data for District 17 shared by Climate Cabinet puts Leach ahead of McLean by two points. In response to a question about his environmental priorities and how they compare to McLean’s, Leach sent a one-line reply: “My advice is to follow the lead of Google and go SMR nuclear.”