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Analysis: Why Abu Dhabi is betting on fusion

Oct 24, 2024, 6:18am EDT
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Tareq’s view

Scientists appear on the verge of unlocking commercial fusion within the next decade, potentially fulfilling the long-sought promise of unlimited, clean, and safe power.

This technology — if it can be deployed at scale — would be a major inflection point, unlocking limitless, cheap energy and significantly threatening the fossil fuel industry. As a major oil exporter, the UAE is not ignoring or undermining the technology. It is investing in it, exploring how to secure access to crucial fuels, and embedding itself in the fusion supply chain.

Before exploring the UAE’s moves and the logic behind them, a brief primer:

The Soviet Union’s initial 1968 breakthrough ignited a global race, with billions of dollars spent on research and little to show for it. The science behind fusion is complex, requiring the re-creation of the reaction that powers stars — on Earth. Despite this daunting challenge, scientists globally have made significant developments: MIT labs, for example, have already reached temperatures twice as high as those at the sun’s core.

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The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project — a research coalition involving the EU, US, South Korea, Russia, China, and India — is building a $22 billion full-sized fusion reactor in France. ITER is driving a boom in scientific advances, and the fusion industry is taking shape, with 45 private companies and over $7.1 billion invested globally. The US leads with 25 private firms, followed by the UK and Germany.

Commercial fusion may be ready for the market in as little as a decade: Microsoft has already signed a power-purchase agreement with a fusion company, Helion Energy. As the world’s largest energy consumers begin constructing reactors over decades, these developments will cause a systemic shock to the global fossil fuel industry.

Gulf countries are particularly vulnerable. In 2023, fossil fuels accounted for around 50% of Saudi Arabia’s and Kuwait’s GDP, 40% of Qatar’s, and 30% of the UAE’s. Adjacent industries and resulting spending drive much of these countries’ non-oil economic growth and represent most of their government revenues.

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Recognizing the risks, the UAE has made fusion one of its key technological priorities.

Following UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s recent visit to Washington, the White House and Abu Dhabi issued a joint statement explicitly stating cooperation on fusion energy. Plynth Energy, Abu Dhabi’s investment arm for future energy technologies, made its first major investment in September in Zap Energy, a US-based company developing scalable fusion technology. This deal, and others, are part of Abu Dhabi’s strategy to claim a slice of the fusion pie.

The greater opportunity, however, is for the UAE to be integrated into the supply chain.

Fusion requires specialized materials, including high-temperature superconductors, alloys, and magnets. Established players like Commonwealth Fusion Systems and MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center have developed the strongest superconducting magnet for their reactor. The UAE could back these efforts to deepen its involvement in the knowledge base of the fusion supply chain.

Other component materials are also attractive. These include silicon carbide fiber-reinforced matrix composites and minerals like Vanadium, which will also be integral to the technology.

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The UAE is already well-positioned to become a leading producer of fusion fuels. Deuterium and tritium — key elements needed for fusion — are available. The ammonia-hydrogen exchange process produces deuterium, while tritium is generated as a byproduct of nuclear energy. ADNOC is a major ammonia producer, and Abu Dhabi operates four 1400 megawatt-equivalent uranium-fueled nuclear power plants that yield tritium.

Beyond investments, the UAE is beginning to foster scientific engagement in the field. In 2023, Khalifa University and the UK-based Tokamak Energy co-hosted the ‘Focus on Fusion’ event, bringing researchers and industry experts together. Fusion was a central topic at COP28 in Dubai, and in March, the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corp. signed an agreement with General Atomics to explore joint fusion opportunities.

It will take decades for enough countries to build enough reactors to take a significant share of fossil fuels’ power production. However, fusion’s safety and affordability will make it a competitive energy source, threatening fossil fuels’ supremacy.

The UAE is acting strategically to secure its future in the fusion era. It has identified fusion as a critical element of its investment strategy — as important as artificial intelligence, space, and renewables. A multifaceted approach will help the country mitigate the systemic shocks of commercial fusion. If the investments are broad enough, the UAE may not only survive this energy revolution but thrive as an important player in the global fusion supply chain.

Tareq Alotaiba has 12 years of experience in economic policy, foreign affairs, and national security with the Abu Dhabi and UAE Federal governments. An Abu Dhabi native, he is currently pursuing a master’s degree in Security Studies at Georgetown University.

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