The News
Donald Trump holds a razor-thin edge over Kamala Harris among Arab American voters even as they view him as more supportive of Israel’s government, according to a new Arab News/YouGov poll.
Forty-five percent of respondents said they are most likely to vote for Trump, while 43% said they would likely cast ballots for Harris, according to the results shared early with Semafor. Trump’s edge is within the survey’s margin of error. Another 4% said they would vote for Jill Stein, 6% said they were undecided, and 2% declined to say their choice.
The results are similar to a survey released earlier this month by the Arab American Institute, which found Trump with 42% support and Harris with 41% support among Arab Americans.
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has posed a challenge for both candidates as they seek to court Arab Americans. The rift over Israel within the Democratic Party has grown more pronounced as the conflict has stretched on; Kamala Harris has walked a careful line between supporting the Biden administration’s ceasefire efforts, asserting Israel’s right to defend itself, and expressing concern about Palestinian casualties. Trump has largely avoided specifics about how he’d approach the war as president, instead asserting that the October 7th attack would not have occurred if he were in office. He has also used “Palestinian” as an insult against Democrats he’s accused of being insufficiently pro-Israel.
Harris is campaigning Monday with Republican former congresswoman Liz Cheney in three battleground states, including Michigan, which boasts a significant Arab-American population.
Trump directly appealed to Arab Americans the same day, warning on Truth Social that the Middle East would “spend the next four decades going up in flames” if Harris is elected.
“Arab Voters are very upset that Comrade Kamala Harris, the Worst Vice President in the History of the United States and a Low IQ individual, is campaigning with ‘dumb as a rock’ War Hawk, Liz Cheney, who, like her father, the man that pushed Bush to ridiculously go to War in the Middle East, also wants to go to War with every Muslim Country known to mankind,” he wrote.
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According to the new poll, which surveyed 500 Arab Americans across the US in late September, 39% said Trump is most likely to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict, while 33% said the same of Harris. At the same time, Trump is seen as more supportive of the Israeli government, while Harris is seen as more sensitive to the national needs and problems of Arab Americans in the US. A plurality — 46% — also said racism and attacks against Arab Americans are more likely to increase under a Trump administration.
Twenty-nine percent named the Israel-Palestine conflict as their top priority, while 21% said the economy and 21% answered cost of living.
Notable
- Weeks of outreach, a 20-minute meeting, and a boost from Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law helped net Donald Trump an endorsement from the mayor of America’s only majority-Muslim city, Semafor’s David Weigel reported.
- Huffpost reported on a campaign by “Future Coalition PAC,” a group backed by Trump endorser Elon Musk, that ran ads portraying Harris as pro-Israel in Arab neighborhoods in Michigan and pro-Palestinian in Jewish neighborhoods.