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The party that takes the Senate on Nov. 5 may just be renting it for two years.
The Republican or Democratic victor will probably inherit a narrow majority that’s immediately vulnerable. Republicans have more paths to control this fall, but they’ll need a Trump-fueled red wave to carry them out of danger in 2026.
The biggest unknown right now for the midterms’ congressional outlook is who resides in the White House: Whether it’s Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, the next president should be immediately preparing for a potential backlash in the midterm election.
Take it from North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, who may confront both a primary challenge from the right and a general election challenge from the left. (Retiring Rep. Wiley Nickel is already interested in the Senate.) All of that pales in comparison to whether Trump or Harris is president.
“If Harris wins, then our path becomes very straightforward. Because her policies are going to fail as poorly as Biden’s did, and that’s going to create the typical historical bad cycle for the incumbent party,” Tillis told Semafor.
He’s also preparing for the the 2026 implications of a second Trump term, so he’s nudging his party to prepare for fast action on tax cuts and deregulation: “If Trump wins, it’s why I feel so strongly that we need to be focusing on fulfilling our promises, and that begins by electing leaders early and getting the agenda started as quickly as possible,” Tillis added.
“Then I think we’ll have, at worst, a neutral environment to run in.”
North Carolina and Maine, where Susan Collins could pursue a sixth term, are Democrats’ best opportunities to pick up Senate seats in 2026. There are more in red territory: Texas, Iowa, Alaska, South Carolina and Montana all have races that Democrats competed for in 2020. And there will be an open seat in Kentucky if Mitch McConnell retires, with Republicans fearing popular Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear could jump in.
That’s a lot of seats potentially in play for the next chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who is now likely to be South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. It’s become a challenge for Republicans to even find a new campaign chief given how unpredictable their map looks two years from now. For Democrats, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand raised her hand weeks ago.
“If Trump wins, it’s a nightmare map,” one senior Republican aide said. “If Kamala wins, it becomes less bad.”
There are fewer opportunities for Senate Republicans to gain ground in 2026, but a couple are enticing — particularly if Democrats control the White House. Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., is up for re-election, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., is undecided on running again and Democratic seats will also be up in Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia.
Other than Georgia and Michigan, none of those are Senate battlegrounds at the moment. Still, Republicans could angle for pick-up opportunities with the right recruits. No matter the circumstances, Georgia will certainly be the toughest Democratic seat to defend in two years as Republicans try to coax Gov. Brian Kemp into a Senate run.
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Republicans’ best hope for 2026 will come in 10 days. If Trump carries GOP candidates to victory in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, on top of flipped seats in Ohio and Montana and a defense of every incumbent, Republicans could end this year with as many as 55 seats.
That’s a big if.
It’s rare these days for states to elect a senator of the opposite party from their presidential preference, but polls show Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan running clearly ahead of Harris. If they all win, it would short-circuit Republican hopes of a big majority and make 2026 even more interesting. The GOP is even making a late push in Nevada, too.
“Republicans don’t look like they’re on track to take advantage of their Senate map,” one Democratic operative told Semafor. “Any Republican underperformance is a win for Democrats that will have ramifications in Senate races for years to come.”
Democrats have a lower ceiling to achieve this year, but party insiders say they’ve done as much as they can. Democrats are bullish on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown’s re-election in a toss-up race. Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., will need to handily outperform polls to have any chance, however.
If Democrats lose even one of those seats, their path to a majority would require upsetting Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas or Sen. Rick Scott of Florida – or both. If absolutely everything broke their way, Democrats could end up with 52 seats, not counting the anomaly of Nebraska’s strange-but-close Senate race between Independent Dan Osborn and GOP Sen. Deb Fischer.
The median result is somewhere closer to a 50-50 Senate with Republicans favored, particularly if polls are giving an accurate read. That narrowly divided Senate would set the table for an immediate showdown in 2026 over the majority, or even sooner in the event of special elections created by senators going to the next president’s cabinet.
Burgess’s view
No one likes the fact that I am reporting (again) on the next election cycle before this one is over.
“Democrats are focused on holding our Senate majority, knowing how much is at stake,” said Sarah Guggenheimer, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senate Majority PAC, citing tax, abortion and entitlement policies. “The 2026 map will still be there two weeks from now.”
Torunn Sinclair, a spokesperson for the GOP Senate Leadership Fund, said “we need to win the Senate majority in 2024 before we think about expanding it in 2026.”
But it’s still important to talk about that map right now. Unlike the House, the fight for Senate control is a rolling battle where every seat matters. The bigger the majority you can build, the less susceptible you are to a wave election the next cycle — even a small wave.
The best recent example of what I’m talking about: Democrats built up such a huge majority in 2008 that it buoyed them through the Tea Party wave in 2010. No one is getting 59 seats this time around, but you can see why both parties widened the campaign playing field this fall.
Yes, they want the majority next year. But they also want the best shot possible in 2026 too.