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Democrats, who lost the House of Representatives two years ago after surprising losses in New York and California, see a path to winning the four seats they need that doesn’t fully depend on those coastal states.
Regardless of whether Kamala Harris wins the presidency, Democrats believe they can beat vulnerable Republican lawmakers in Oregon and Wisconsin, take one or even two critical seats in Iowa, and claw back a Nebraska seat they haven’t held in nearly a decade.
“This has basically been 10 years of organizing and every cycle pushing back more on Don Bacon,” Nebraska Democratic Party chair Jane Kleeb told Semafor, referring to the Republican congressman in the Omaha area, who has kept his seat in part through his willingness to work with Democrats. Kleeb pointed to a new rural organizing position in the state as well as a robust block captain program this cycle.
This alternate path is partly a matter of necessity in a shifting national landscape. Several New York and California GOP incumbents are seen as well-positioned to hang on, such as first-term Rep. Mike Lawler and six-term Rep. David Valadao, the rare Republican whose career survived voting for Trump’s impeachment. That means netting the four seats they’ll need to take back the majority will likely require Democrats to make inroads outside the two states that bedeviled them in 2022.
Bacon’s seat is an especially prized Democratic target, and Harris’ party feels good this year because of Nebraska law that allows Omaha to separately award one (bluer) electoral vote in the presidential race.
Harris running mate Tim Walz, who was born in Nebraska, made his second trip to the district last week. Kleeb pointed to a new rural organizing position in the state as well as a robust block captain program this cycle.
But Republicans have surpassed the nearly $7 million that the House Democratic campaign arm and super PAC have spent in Bacon’s district.
Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, Democrats have invested in two districts on opposite sides of the state, but their best chance for a pickup next week is against Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who has a history of outbursts and faced bipartisan criticism last year when he cursed at school-aged Senate pages.
“You cannot be your own worst enemy,” one Democratic strategist told Semafor. “Even in a Trump-plus state, you could still lose.”
Wisconsin state party chair Ben Wikler said earlier this month that nominee Rebecca Cooke had put Van Orden’s district in play after a near-miss Democratic loss in 2022 and that the issues were moving in her direction.
“It used to be that if you knocked on the doors of Republicans, they were talking about inflation,” he told Semafor. “Now they’re going to talk to you about immigration, because as the economy has gotten better and better, and inflation has eased. Harris has made a really strong future-facing economic argument.”
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Republicans have had to massively boost their spending this election season as they try to beat back unexpected Democratic challenges across the map. Much of that is, of course, in hotly contested and expensive New York and California.
Republican Rep. Michelle Steel’s Southern Californian district holds the title for most expensive race at the moment, with $26 million in combined spending from both parties.
But Democrats are also spending heavily in the Midwest. In Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, represented by GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Republicans have increased their spending nearly four times relative to last cycle and are still just neck in neck with Democrats’ more than $5.5 million as of Saturday — up from $30,000 just two years ago.
Next door in Iowa’s 3rd District, Republicans have spent heavily to defend a seat Dems flipped in 2020 then lost in 2022 to Rep. Zach Nunn.
That spending advantage stems from a party-wide effort to revitalize Iowa’s local Democrats, who had become inconsequential as the state turned redder over the past decade or so.
“The DNC will continue to give Iowa Democrats the resources they need to protect Iowans’ rights and achieve victories up and down the ballot next month and in election cycles to come,” DNC spokesperson Stephanie Justice told Semafor in a statement.
Kadia’s view
Democrats are smart to not put all their proverbial eggs in one basket. Despite a huge push on abortion rights, their 2022 campaign message withered in swing districts in New York and California as Republicans painted them as soft on crime.
This fall they’re facing new electoral landmines in those districts that are centered around immigration and the economy, where Republicans have historically held the advantage.
“The nice thing about California and New York is that the talking point has always been very easy to explain: Like, this is the path we see here. … in reality, the plan was always to go bigger, always to invest in other places,” Tim Persico, a Democratic consultant with GPS Impact, said in an interview.
“As far as I know, every vote for speaker counts just the same, no matter where it comes from,” he added.
Room for Disagreement
For every seat outside New York and California that Democrats feel good about, Republicans are looking to a different tight contest.
In Alaska, polling has Republican Nick Begich leading Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska’s at-large seat even after Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski endorsed the Democrat. Maine’s Jared Golden is facing a barrage of pro-Second Amendment ads in recent weeks after he reversed his opposition to an assault weapons ban in 2023 following a mass shooting in his state.
And Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., faces a rematch against Joe Kent, who’s running on mass deportation as she distances herself from the top of the ticket.
“As we’ve been saying all cycle, Republicans are on offense from the Pacific to the Atlantic. Democrats are sounding the alarm with less than two weeks out and we are pressing the advantage,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Savannah Viar said.
Notable
- On the ground in a North Carolina battleground district, even former President Bill Clinton is touting deportations of undocumented people, Politico reported.
- Democrats’ path to the House majority doesn’t rely on a Harris victory, NBC noted.
Weigel reported from Ferryville, Wis.