The News
The divide between men and women voters has perhaps never been so stark as it is in the run up to the 2024 US election: Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by double digits with women, while the former president’s support among men has never been so pronounced.
With just days before the election, the Harris campaign is doubling down on its abortion messaging in the hope of persuading enough moderate women to vote Democrat. In a tied race, convincing just a few thousand women in the right states to opt for Harris could determine who wins the White House.
However, recent reporting suggests women in some key swing states like Arizona and Nevada may be more willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt on abortion.
SIGNALS
Surge in women voting early reassures Democrats
In key battleground states, women account for 55% of early voters, according to a Politico analysis. While it’s impossible to know who these women are voting for, the Harris campaign “[sees] the lack of a surge of male voters as an encouraging sign,” the outlet wrote, with Democratic strategists previously predicting that a surge in early Republican turnout might result in more gender parity. In some states, early women voters are exceeding numbers from 2020, one strategist said. The encouraging data comes as Harris and her surrogates on the campaign trail zero in on abortion access as a way to target moderate suburban women — and, in particular, non-college educated white women — in the race’s final days.
Abortion referendums could complicate Harris’ chances in Arizona and Nevada
Ten state ballots include referendums on abortion rights, including in the key swing states of Arizona and Nevada. Recent polling suggests that the overwhelming majority of voters in these states support these referendums, yet Harris is either behind or tied with Trump in those states, respectively. It is “less clear” whether she has been able to convince moderate Republicans and independents that voting for her is akin to protecting abortion rights, The Washington Post wrote. These voters appear to be “willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt,” and seem reassured by his recent assurances that he would veto a nation-wide abortion ban, despite months of flip-flopping on the issue.
Women report ‘canceling’ partners’ votes, but household voter suppression is a real issue, pundits warn
The gender split could mean thousands of households end up voting for different candidates — a potential situation that, New York Magazine’s The Cut reported, has inspired a social media trend where women “cancel” their partner’s vote. The Guardian columnist Rebecca Solnit identifies a growing concern among progressives that some men could try to pressure their female family members to vote for Trump, pointing to a suggestion from Fox News host Jesse Watters that wives who vote for Harris were akin to having an affair. In anticipation of such pressure, anti-Trump groups like The Lincoln Project have launched ads reminding women their vote is private — a sentiment former Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney iterated while on the campaign trail for Harris earlier this month.