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Semafor Signals

Why Trumpism may be here to stay

Nov 4, 2024, 10:46am EST
politicsNorth America
Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump gestures during his rally in Kinston, North Carolina
Jonathan Drake/Reuters
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The News

On the eve of the US presidential election, the future of Trumpism and the MAGA movement are in the spotlight. If former President Donald Trump wins on Nov. 5, he has one term to serve as president, leaving the door open to a successor to rise in 2028. If Trump loses, then that door opens sooner.

Trump’s anti-immigration, protectionist, and culture-war rhetoric “is here to stay,” a Bloomberg columnist argued, in part because he has shown the Republican party that it is a “wickedly effective path to power.” A Financial Times writer agreed that Trump had been “a titanic success,” particularly for having fostered a protectionist anti-trade consensus across the world.

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Still, there remains a question over who succeeds to lead the MAGA movement after Trump leaves politics — a task that may prove complicated, Politico wrote.

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SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

Versions of Trumpism have long existed in US politics

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Source:  
Bloomberg

Trumpism’s ascent should not have surprised Americans, Bloomberg argued, because a form of it has existed in US politics for most of the country’s history: A 1798 law gave the government power to deport immigrants deemed dangerous, anti-immigrant movements existed throughout the 19th century, and Trump’s 20th-century predecessors employed rhetoric based on eroding trust in institutions. “Trumpism, like its antecedents and whatever offshoots that follow it, are thoroughly American,” the outlet wrote. “The changing character and complexion of America creates friction — as it always has — but it is also the source of great energy and promise. Voters and the country may change faster than Trump can corral them, and there will always be a home for his supporters.”

Trump’s rhetoric will continue to inspire politicians across the world

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Sources:  
The Guardian, the Financial Times

Trump’s political ascendance has coincided with and given legitimacy to a global rise of populist right-wing movements, in part bolstered by the rise of social media platforms and the fragmentation of news media, a columnist wrote in the Financial Times: “Politicians now know there is a constituency for reactionary politics,” meaning that even if Trump loses, the days of the moderate right of Mitt Romney and Ronald Reagan are unlikely to come back. “Trump’s intellectually incoherent, viscerally divisive populist-nationalist script will continue to find fans and emulators in authoritarian governments and among Europe’s far-right parties,” a foreign affairs commentator wrote for The Guardian earlier this year.

No clarity on the future of MAGA

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Sources:  
The New York Times, Politico, The Washington Post

It’s unclear what would happen to Trump’s MAGA movement if he loses or if he wins. “There is no ready heir to his MAGA crown,” a columnist wrote in The New York Times. Potential successors, like Trump’s running mate JD Vance or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, are largely seen as lacking the charisma and authority to take the reins. “It does make me worry,” a Trump supporter told Politico. “The movement is mostly him.” And even if Trump wins, MAGA will need to evolve, working on “the assumption that the ‘national greatness’ agenda is already far advanced by the time JD Vance and many other would-be Trump successors start jostling for the 2028 nomination,” a columnist wrote in The Washington Post.

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