The News
Donald Trump will be the 47th president of the United States, with multiple media outlets calling the race early Wednesday after the Republican captured enough electoral college votes to secure a decisive victory in the US election.
In this second term, Trump is expected to adopt protectionist economic policies, imposing sweeping tariffs on imports and reducing corporate taxes. The US may also see dramatic curbs on immigration, with Trump campaigning on a promise to enact mass deportations of migrants.
However, depending on the eventual makeup of Congress, Trump may be limited in what legislation he can pass, especially if Democrats win a majority in the House. And because of the Senate filibuster, even a significant GOP majority — which currently appears possible — may not mean he gets everything he wants legislatively.
SIGNALS
Curbing immigration likely to remain a central focus
Reducing immigration, which many Americans had signaled as one of the most important issues facing their country ahead of the vote, is likely to remain a core focus: Trump repeatedly promised the “largest deportation” of undocumented immigrants in US history. The promise appears to have stuck with the electorate, with one study finding 55% of US adults want to see immigration decreased, the highest percentage since 9/11. But a stricter immigration policy may prove costly in the long term, analysts at ING noted, since most employment growth comes from foreign-born workers, who constitute almost a fifth of the US workforce. A reduction in these employees could drive up wages and inflation, they wrote, while fewer active workers could also mean reduced economic demand.
Protectionist economic policies could add billions to US debt
Trump has promised an “America First” approach that may result in an era of sweeping protectionism. The self-described “tariff man” has pledged to sharply escalate duties on imports, including 60% on products from China and up to 20% on all other imported goods — worth an estimated $3 trillion. Such a move will likely cause inflation to accelerate, as importers pass on the higher duties to consumers, Bloomberg noted. Trump is also planning tax reforms, including reducing the corporate tax rate to 15% for companies that manufacture in the US. While these policies may prove successful in the short term, they could add $7.75 billion to the country’s debt over the next decade, a non-partisan think tank estimated.
Authoritarian threats raise fears for US democracy
Trump’s authoritarian threats — promising to fire “rogue bureaucrats and career politicians” and install loyalists in his government, while calling his opponents “the enemy from within” — have led to fears that America’s democracy could be in danger. “Some have suggested that we may be heading for a ′soft autocracy′ like that in Viktor Orbán’s Hungary… maintained by rigging elections, controlling the courts and muzzling the media,” a New York Times columnist wrote. The incoming president has proposed “the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution,” The Washington Post noted; and even high-level former Trump administration officials have said he has fascist tendencies.