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Semafor Signals

Latino voters, once seen as solidly Democratic, see a future in Trump’s America

Nov 6, 2024, 4:26pm EST
politicsNorth America
Donald Trump and Latino leaders
Carlos Barria/Reuters
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The News

With Donald Trump on his way back to the White House, Democrats are left to understand how they lost ground with their most reliable voter demographics — and in particular, with Latinos.

Slightly more than half of all eligible Latino voters supported Harris, which is a dramatic drop from the estimated 60% who voted for Biden in 2020. The bleeding was apparent in red and blue states alike: In Harris’ home state of California, she was barely ahead or even trailing Trump in some Hispanic-majority counties like Fresno.

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Some of the shift is likely a reflection of the broader gaps in gender and education between Harris and Trump voters, with working-class and non-college educated men overwhelmingly tilting toward the former president. However, analysts pointed out that Trump’s brand of conservative Christian and economic populism also had a role to play.

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SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

Latinos are more concerned about economy than Democrats realized

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Sources:  
The Spectator, El Mundo

Democrats had hoped that Trump’s frequent attacks on migrants would help sway Latinos against Republicans. But the surge in the Latino GOP vote indicates that “established immigrant populations see economic downsides to having newer immigrant workers come in and compete for jobs,” UK-based magazine The Spectator noted. This concern, and the broader sense that the US economy is not working for the working class, meant that even when presented with s Trump campaign message that took direct aim at Latino communities — a Trump rally guest called Puerto Rico “garbage,” a remark the campaign distanced itself from — Hispanic voters “downplayed the issue and remained firm in their support of the Republican [candidate]” and his promise of lower prices, El Mundo wrote.

Strategists debate the role of machismo among Latino men

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Sources:  
The New Republic, Miami Herald

Trump saw his greatest gains among Latinos as a whole in men, a reflection of the gender divide that largely defined the election. The right-wing podcasters and social media figures Trump courted have “big influences” on Latino men, a Democratic strategist told The New Republic, feeding the perception of Trump as “a powerful man, physically and economically,” aligned with the culture of machismo, or masculine pride, that runs through many Latino communities. It may not be so simple, one Republican strategist told The Miami Herald: The gender divide among Latinos is more a story of education and, to a degree, social class, he said. Latino women are much more likely to have a college degree than men, he said, adding that “If you go to college, you’re much more likely to be a Democrat, and if you don’t, you’re more likely to be a Republican.”

Many in Latino communities hold conservative, Christian values

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Sources:  
NBC News, CBS News, National Catholic Reporter

For months, religious leaders had noted that Evangelical Latinos were “more involved than ever” in this election, NBC News reported, with the Trump campaign making direct appeals to Christian Evangelicals with hardline views on abortion and other social issues. Speaking to CBS News, some US Latino voters who had opted for Trump pointed out that they “came from very conservative families,” and that key Democratic campaign messages like access to abortion and safeguarding LGBTQ rights go against their values. Trump’s supporters further emphasized these divisions by Latino-specific Christian symbolism and messaging into the campaign by celebrating the Virgin of Guadeloupe, a symbol of the Mexican diaspora, on social media, for example.

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