• D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG
  • D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
Semafor Logo
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG


Trump’s next big decision: Endorsing a future Senate Republican leader

Nov 7, 2024, 6:02pm EST
politics
President-elect Donald Trump
Brian Snyder/Reuters
PostEmailWhatsapp
Title icon

The News

Donald Trump has a consequential choice to make that could affect his entire second-term agenda: whether to endorse in the race to become Senate majority leader next year.

Republican senators have spent months in their own private election-season mode over the three-candidate race to succeed Mitch McConnell as their leader — and after they reclaimed the majority on Tuesday, it’s clear that the winner will steer the whole Senate. The trio of candidates are now bracing for a potentially explosive last-minute Trump endorsement, which could fray alliances and scramble private whip counts.

The contest among Republican Whip John Thune of South Dakota, former whip John Cornyn of Texas and Florida Sen. Rick Scott will take place on Wednesday. All three have courted Trump at Mar-A-Lago and in private conversations; the party’s internal backbiting and skullduggery is already on display, in public and in private.

AD

“I’ve got a good working relationship with him, and I’d welcome his support,” Scott told Semafor of Trump. “It’s a decision he’s got to make.”

“I’ve been very clear that I’ll bust my butt to help him get his agenda done. And I’ve been a consistent friend to Trump,” he added. Scott is considered the underdog, but he vowed he would win next week.

Trump may not weigh in at all on who he wants to steer his agenda in the upper chamber. But if he does, his endorsement would upend a once-sleepy race that has intensified in the 48 hours since Republicans won a Senate majority and he won a second term. Most Republican senators see the president-elect’s blessing as having a huge, though not necessarily decisive, effect on the secret-ballot leadership race.

AD

And it’s not entirely clear whether any of the three candidates will take a materially different approach than Trump on big issues like immigration, taxes and tech. Thune and Cornyn have been more supportive of Ukraine aid and bipartisan deals than Scott, but with Trump leading the party everyone will be looking to the president-elect to lead on policy preferences.

While Scott is rarely at odds with Trump, both Thune and Cornyn have distanced themselves from him in the past: Thune endorsed South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott over Trump in the 2024 primary, and Cornyn questioned Trump’s ability to win a general election. Both Thune and Cornyn also have major sway with their colleagues due to their fundraising prowess and knowledge of Senate procedure; they’ve occupied the whip’s No. 2 office for the last 12 years, between them.

Given those structural advantages for Thune and Cornyn, Scott would face a challenge leveraging Trump’s endorsement into victory. His last leadership bid garnered 10 votes in 2022, and Republicans who support other candidates are skeptical he can get many more this time, under any circumstances.

AD

In a secret-ballot race based on years-long relationships, GOP senators could stray from Trump’s favored candidate under the cover of anonymity.

Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., an early Trump backer and a Thune supporter, said he’s told the president-elect that “it really isn’t in his best interest to get involved in the race, because no matter who the winner is, he’s got to work with them.”

“I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays out of it completely, and that would be my preference. But he is his own man,” Mullin told Semafor, predicting that Thune would prevail, possibly on the first ballot but “definitely” on the second.

Mullin encouraged Thune and Trump to start coordinating earlier this year, saying that they would “work really well together.” Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., another Trump ally, is also supporting Thune.

Title icon

Know More

Thune’s opponents are hoping that Trump’s win complicates the path for the genial South Dakotan, who has worked to mend a once-frayed relationship with the president-elect. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., nudged Trump publicly to endorse Scott on Thursday.

One Republican aide said: “There is a reason Mullin is begging Trump not to get involved.”

In TV appearances this week, Thune touted his ability to work with Trump and said Trump has “tremendous influence” on the Republican leader race, “if he chooses to use it.” Thune also suggested the president-elect might want to let the GOP figure it out themselves, telling CNBC on Thursday that “it’s probably in his best interest to stay out of that.”

Both Thune and Cornyn served as whips under Trump and are emphasizing their shared success. Thune spoke to Trump after Election Day, according to a person familiar with the call, and on TV this week Cornyn said he told the president this week he’s “interested in getting the band back together.”

Scott is emphasizing his existing relationships, not just with Trump, but also with House Speaker Mike Johnson and Freedom Caucus conservatives. Still, he’s careful not to criticize either Cornyn or Thune’s approach to Trump: “I wouldn’t want to ever suggest something different than somebody else,” he said.

“I know all three of the candidates for Republican leader have been to Mar-A-Lago, been meeting with President Trump, talking with him off and on,” said Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, who is expected to assume the whip job next year and said all three potential leaders could work well with Trump.

Mullin cryptically disagreed with that assessment, suggesting that Trump has beef with someone on the ballot: “There’s two people in the race that he’s OK with winning, and there’s one that he’s absolutely not. And I’m not going to get into who that is.”

Title icon

Burgess’s view

The Trump 2.0 era on Capitol Hill starts right now, and this is the president-elect’s first big strategic decision. Staying on the sidelines is the safest move, but some Republicans think if he has a preference he should make a move.

No one knows what Trump will do. And senators insist they will make their own decisions regardless of his stance. That may be true, but the fact that he just cruised to victory (and outperformed most GOP Senate candidates) means that any Trump endorsement will carry major weight in the leadership race.

I’m not sure Trump’s view would determine the winner, however. Senators elected to six-year terms often see themselves as outlasting whoever happens to sit in the White House.

AD
AD