A small Republican majority could be the ‘nightmare scenario’ for a U.S. debt crisis

Democrats are celebrating their strong performance in the House, where Republicans look likely to take, at best, a narrow majority.

But some Democrats are also starting to worry that a slim House Republican majority could make for a more unstable negotiating partner than a larger “red wave” version.

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., told Semafor on Wednesday that he believes that the party’s right wing will gain immense influence if House Republican leaders like Kevin McCarthy have few votes to spare. He cast himself as playing a role similar to that of Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., a Democrat played an outsized role in his party’s agenda in the 50-50 Senate.

One House Democratic aide referred to the prospect of dealing with a narrow House GOP majority as “the nightmare scenario” for raising the debt ceiling, with Republican leaders constantly struggling to appease their most confrontational members. Already, McCarthy may have to make concessions to conservatives just to clinch his long-sought speakership.

“I think this dynamic probably makes it much more likely that there’s a push to do a big [omnibus spending bill] and take care of the debt ceiling in the lame-duck,” one Senate Democratic aide told Semafor. “If you’re Mitch McConnell, you probably want to get that stuff out of the way, too.”

Some Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., are already pushing to defuse the threat before a Congress adjourns late next month, HuffPost reported. It’s unlikely Senate Republicans will muster 10 votes to help Democrats raise the borrowing cap, leaving the arduous and time-consuming reconciliation process as the only procedural vehicle left.

That would require unanimity among all 50 Senate Democrats and shave at least two weeks off a packed legislative calendar that could see votes on marriage equality and the Electoral Count Act among other measures.

Corporate America may raise the pressure on Democrats to get it out of the way sooner rather than later.

“I think business has awakened to the fact that the debt limit is coming,” Janice Mays, a former Democratic staff director on the House Ways and Means panel and now a managing director of tax policy at PwC, told Semafor. “Businesses are nervous about the debt limit and the push to the cliff.”