COP29 opens with low expectations for major agreements

Last week’s US elections “dented hopes” for those looking to the country — the second greatest producer of carbon emissions after China — to set the example at the COP summit. The new president-elect Donald Trump is a known climate skeptic, withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Accord during his last presidency. Washington rejoined in 2021 under current President Joe Biden. One expert from the Centre of European Reform told The Independent that reduced US support could “demotivate developing countries from taking seriously the climate ambitions of the West.” Only two of the G7’s leaders — the British and Italian prime ministers — will attend the summit in Baku this week, generating “fears the rich nations are losing political will to tackle climate change,” The National wrote.

China will play an outsized role in this year’s summit, its confidence boosted by Beijing’s dominance of the clean tech industry as the West’s attention lies elsewhere. Chinese diplomats will say the country is beating its decarbonization targets, and helping the developing world to do the same, while Europe and the US lag behind. China’s dominance as a leader in green energy technology and climate diplomacy makes a “significant change” following years of pressure from Western governments. One Chinese analyst told the Financial Times that the West linking climate policies to trade is making climate diplomacy “more politicized, more divisive,” and that instead, Beijing has chosen to view its climate agenda as “not a political story but a ‘real economy’ story,” one expert from the Asia Society Policy Institute told the outlet.