Faisal’s view
Donald Trump’s second term is raising expectations of more engaged US leadership in the Middle East. Unlike his 2016 campaign, marred by talks of Muslim bans, Trump 2.0 has emerged as a favorite among Arab-Americans. His message of bringing his “art of the deal” to ending conflicts resonated at home and in the region, with many here expecting bold steps.
Of course, the reality television star in him led to exaggerations — nobody really expects him to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine in a day. But there’s a belief in the region that “Abu Ivanka” holds more cards, stamina, and the guts to do what his predecessor couldn’t. Trump 2.0 has little to lose but much to gain by brokering peace, and potentially reshaping his image from undertaker to peacemaker.
Apart from the security and economic interests, there’s also personal gain for Trump. This is his last chance to prove that he can achieve what no previous president could — and that is a powerful motivator. His success in brokering a “deal of the century” and bringing lasting peace and stability to the region depends on expanding the Abraham Accords and establishing a Palestinian state.
The Jared Kushner-led plan of the first term, though highly criticized, included a two-state solution component. Palestinians, rightly or wrongly, rejected it. I predict an updated version that reflects the new realities since Oct. 7 will be proposed because the region — and the world’s vital oil supplies — can’t be on the brink of all out war for much much longer.
The main obstacles: A viable Palestinian state, Israel, and Iran.
Saudi Arabia has been unequivocal in condemning Israel’s action. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called it a “genocide” at the recently concluded Arab and Islamic summit in Riyadh, and reiterated the summit consensus for a Palestinian State within the borders of 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital. Therefore setting the expectation that this time around, there will be no further expansion of the Abraham Accords without Palestinian recognition.
Trump’s team may see an opportunity to align with Saudi Arabia’s efforts leading a coalition for a two-state solution, which also gels with shifting global sentiments toward the conflict. The weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah, and possibly a more pragmatic Iran, reduce the odds of spoilers. The Palestinian Authority has limited options — the quicker they accept a reasonable plan, the quicker they will secure US-backed statehood.
On the Israeli side, Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition and battlefield successes are hindering compromise. There’s little appetite for a two-state solution, and there’s no threat of losing US aid and arms under Trump, or any US president. Given that a much needed stick seems unlikely, it’s up to Trump and his advisor to find the carrot to incentivize Netanyahu to reach a deal.
Iran remains a wildcard. Tehran’s response to Trump’s return and the reintroduction of the “Maximum Pressure” campaign is unclear. Reports of an Iranian assassination plot against Trump adds uncertainty. Although the president-elect ran on a track record — and promise — not to involve the US in more wars, only time will tell if further direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran changes this position.
For Gulf states, the hope for a reengaged US that can curb Israel, recognize Palestine, and contain Iran is fueling optimism of Trump 2.0. The fear, however, is that all out war could erupt, with costly global consequences from the strait of Hormuz to the streets of Harlem.
Faisal J. Abbas is an award-winning journalist and Editor-in-Chief of Arab News.