The News
President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to carry out mass deportations, and his first cabinet picks — former Immigration and Customs Enforcement Tom Homan as “border czar,” Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy — reflect that ambition.
It’s unclear how the incoming administration might pursue this goal: Deportations require vast law enforcement resources, and while Trump has hinted at involving the military, that would mark a sea change in current US immigration enforcement. Removing immigrants from the US also requires officials working with immigrants’ home countries to secure their return, and a single flight can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, CBS News noted.
Beyond the logistical quagmire, US business leaders and analysts have warned that the loss of labor and tax revenue could severely damage the economy.
SIGNALS
Mass deportations carry a huge administrative price tag
Deporting every undocumented immigrant in the US would cost at least $315 billion, according to nonprofit the American Immigration Council, which stressed that this is a “highly conservative estimate” and does not include the long-term costs. Much of the cost could lie in expanding detention capacity and personnel, the nonprofit added, because “there would be no way to accomplish this mission without mass detention as an interim step.” According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement data from 2016, the average cost of apprehending, detaining, processing, and removing one undocumented immigrant was about $10,900, and the costs have likely only risen since then, the agency’s former director told CNN.
Immigrant-dependent business warn of collapse
Agriculture, healthcare, and hospitality business leaders have warned that mass deportations could cripple their business, the Financial Times reported. The National Restaurant Association estimates that 54% of restaurant employees in the US are undocumented, and half of all restaurants could be forced to close if deportations target immigrants beyond criminals, the group warned. The agricultural sector is particularly worried that the incoming Trump administration could carry out deportations without expanding legal immigration programs like the H-2A visa, which gives temporary status for agriculture workers. Without adequate labor replacement, food costs could soar, CNBC reported.
Private contractors could see expanded role in immigration
Private prisons could benefit hugely from mass deportations, and stocks of the two largest US prison companies surged immediately after President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, ABC News reported, while one CEO predicted a “potential sea change” for the industry. The Departments of Homeland Security and Health and Human Services already rely on private contractors along the border to build and run so-called “tent cities” where officials process, examine, and transport migrants, but though these contractors enable the rapid scaling up of detention and deportation operations, they also run the risk of a lack oversight and putting profits above people, immigration rights activists told USA Today.