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Advisors close to President-elect Donald Trump are pushing for a renewed US-Africa policy which focuses on “deals and deterrence” and rows back some of what they see as overly progressive or “woke” diplomacy under the Biden White House.
Trump, who is set to return for a second term in January, is widely expected to be more transactional in his style of leadership, an approach he is expected to apply in his White House’s dealings with African states.
But two people, who spoke to Semafor Africa on condition of anonymity because they were not permitted to speak for the transition team, emphasized that many deals will also be part of an approach to enforce more deterrents to conflicts around the continent.
Another marked difference will be what one person described as a “God, gays and guns” approach to US-African diplomacy. This would involve promoting evangelical Christian conservative interests and reversing some of the pro-LGBT policies championed by the Biden White House, particularly in its dealings with countries like Uganda which last year passed anti-gay legislation. With regards to guns, the person noted there is also an interest from some who seemed keen on diplomatic postings in eastern and southern Africa for gamehunting opportunities.
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Trump’s first term US-Africa policy was overwhelmed by reports of a dismissive attitude towards Africa and Africans — most notoriously for his reference to “s-hole countries.” But it was also a time when the US began stepping up its focus on rivaling China on the continent. This included an overhaul of the US development finance structure by creating the International Development Finance Corporation, which had a budget twice that of its predecessor.
“The administration is going to be very pro-business because they see Africa as an opportunity, as Trump himself has said in the past,” explained Cameron Hudson, analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington. The hope is that by doing more deals, the US “crowds out the competitors” and promotes American capitalist values.
Yinka’s view
There’s a lot of optimism around the right when it comes to the future of US-Africa relations under Trump, based on conversations I’ve been having. The general feeling seems to be that Washington’s relationship with the continent will benefit from a reset. To reinforce their point, they point to a range of issues including the severity of conflicts in Sudan and eastern DR Congo, and the democratic backsliding in the Sahel.
But it’s important to remember that Biden’s White House also took off on a wave of optimism in this space leading up to the US-Africa Leaders’ Summit in December 2022. At the time, it was framed as the beginning of a major policy reset which was going to move African affairs up the White House’s priority list. That never happened. It probably was the peak, even though there were a number of well-covered high-profile visits during the last couple of years.
President Biden is set to visit Angola next month, but as a lame duck president. There are now even concerns the visit could backfire on Angola’s ambitions. All this to say things can go off the rails very quickly in foreign policy for any country or region. But having a guiding or consistent philosophy might help reduce the impact and allow for a quick reset.
Room for Disagreement
Democrats push back at the idea that there is cause for much optimism for US-Africa under a second Trump administration. “People seem to have amnesia about his last term in office,” said one former official who asked not to be identified to be able to speak freely. “He fully ignored the continent, hosting the fewest number of Africans in the Oval Office since Eisenhower.”
Critics also point to Trump’s Muslim travel ban which included several African countries: Nigeria, Eritrea, Tanzania, Sudan, Somalia, and Chad — though Chad was later reinstated.
There have been numerous reports about Trump’s desire to cut back the State Department budget particularly closing embassies on the continent, and other international outposts.