The News
Senate Republicans have a new headache as they weigh Donald Trump’s more divisive Cabinet picks: Their prospects in 2026 rest on defending incumbents — and those same incumbents could face primary threats from the right if they don’t vote yes.
Republicans haven’t even officially taken the majority yet, but intraparty protection is already on their minds. And as speculation mounts that a handful of Republicans might withhold votes from Trump nominees, senators are keenly aware that many of the potential rebels against the president-elect are also up for re-election in two years.
So any GOP senators who might consider crossing Trump — whether they’re leadership allies or known for their independent streaks — could risk his wrath at a time when MAGA-aligned groups are particularly inclined to threaten a primary.
Depending on how the next year goes, as many as 10 Republican senators could face challenges from the right (whether they’re Trump-backed or not). Matt Gaetz’s withdrawal as Trump’s attorney general nominee relieves some pressure by sparing them a vote on the most polarizing pick, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard remain potential flashpoints.
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said of the potential primary threat: “If you’re afraid of elections, you’re in the wrong line of business.”
“We need to be respectful of the president’s prerogative to nominate his people and to have this team,” Cornyn told Semafor. “But it’s our job to vet them. Both so the public can have confidence in them, and also so the president can learn things that he may not know about that would be potentially embarrassing for him and his administration.”
Trump allies are already floating the idea of primary battles with GOP senators who defy the president-elect. Steve Bannon, a former Trump adviser whose War Room show is influential on the right, told Semafor that “Republican senators [who] vote against President Trump’s nominees are signing their political death warrants.”
Even so, those same GOP senators could benefit with swing voters in general elections by not marching in lockstep with Trump or his picks. The most obvious in that group is Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, a ticket-splitting veteran who says she will treat Trump’s nominees the same way she’s treated them under past presidents, vowing deference but rigorous vetting.
“We’re going to protect the majority. That’s what enables us to do all the things that we want to get done on the Trump agenda,” Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the incoming GOP leader, told Semafor. “Hopefully we’ll figure a path forward on [nominees] that enables the president to be successful and implement his agenda and set ourselves up for success in 2026.”
The 2026 Senate map has plenty of GOP incumbents who are already girding for challenges from the right, like Cornyn and Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, not to mention Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial.
Cassidy will have to vote twice on Kennedy’s nomination, once in committee and on the floor, while overseeing a courtesy hearing. And he’s already making his pitch for re-election as a number of Republicans, including state treasurer John Fleming, are weighing bids for his seat.
“I’ve not announced. But I’m continuing to raise money and I have more cash on hand than any incumbent senator’s had running for re-election in Louisiana,” Cassidy told Semafor, referring to a nearly $6 million war chest.
With Trump, Cassidy added: “I expect a good working relationship. I voted with him about 90% of the time last time, provided a lot of his policy initiatives on health care. I anticipate the same thing this time.”
Know More
Senators interviewed for this story said any political squeeze from the MAGA camp will not weigh on their votes — most of them know it’s been seven years since a sitting Republican senator, Alabamian Luther Strange, lost a primary. Trump’s vow to challenge Thune in 2022 fizzled, and a more serious effort to defeat Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski also failed.
That doesn’t mean it’s not on senators’ minds. “I imagine they think about it,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said of his colleagues. He predicted that token defections are unlikely to prompt a volcanic reaction from Trump.
“As long as they get confirmed, he’ll be OK. He understands the art of the deal and the dynamics of the Senate. But that’s where leadership helps, right? To make sure he understands the strategy and what’s necessary,” Cramer said.
At the same time, trying to predict Trump is often a challenge.
“I can’t imagine that the president’s approach would be: ‘If you vote against any one nominee, I would primary you.’ That would seem counterproductive,” one GOP senator said. However, this senator added: “It would not surprise me if President Trump or some of his allies did end up opposing one or more members based on their opposition to one or more Trump nominees.”
The View From A Senate Republican incumbent
Gabbard’s pick to be intelligence director, Kennedy’s to lead the Department of Health and Human Services and Hegseth’s to helm the Pentagon are the most challenging so far for incumbent senators to take on, particularly in the battleground states that will dominate 2026.
But Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, another incumbent up for re-election who’ll have to vote twice on Hegseth, professed no worry about the pressures.
“We’re going to work on vetting the president’s nominees, and we’re just going to continue having conversations with them. And you know what? I think it’s all going to work out,” she said.
Burgess’s view
I’ve talked to a lot of Republican senators about the Cabinet; almost all of them agree, either privately or publicly, that they’re not looking to exert some huge drag on Trump. And raw politics are part of that equation.
Senators with the most independent voting records, like Collins or Murkowski, don’t fear retribution from Trump in a primary. Neither does Mitch McConnell, who is stepping down as leader. Everybody else, though, has to pay close attention to their standing with Trump if they want to win re-election – or even still maintain influence over the next two years.
That means it may not even take a primary threat to smooth the way for Trump’s picks.
“My hope is that my colleagues will give everybody a fair hearing and ultimately vote to confirm,” said Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo. “If we do our job, get a Cabinet in place that he trusts, execute on the agenda he talked about, we’re going to have great success in 2026.”
— Shelby Talcott contributed.